{
  "disclaimer": "All completionPct values are forensic estimates from public artifacts, not official Tesla/SpaceX KPIs. Users may override.",
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "mp1-roadster",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "Sports-car beachhead (Roadster 1)",
      "status": "done",
      "completionPct": 100,
      "methodology": "First customer delivery Feb 2008. Master Plan I item 1 closed.",
      "promisedDate": "2006-08-02",
      "observedDate": "2008-02-01",
      "slipMonths": 18,
      "costToDate": { "min": 40000000, "max": 90000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 0, "max": 0 },
      "valueIfHit": 1500000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": 0,
      "sources": ["Master Plan I"]
    },
    {
      "id": "mp1-3y",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "Mass-market volume cars (3 / Y)",
      "status": "done",
      "completionPct": 95,
      "methodology": "Volume won. $35k / $25k affordability only intermittently real.",
      "promisedDate": "2016-03-31",
      "observedDate": "2017-07-28",
      "slipMonths": 12,
      "costToDate": { "min": 15000000000, "max": 30000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 0, "max": 2000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 400000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -200000000000,
      "sources": ["Master Plan I", "Delivery prints"]
    },
    {
      "id": "ten-million",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "1 million through 10 millionth vehicle",
      "status": "done",
      "completionPct": 100,
      "methodology": "1M ~Mar 2020 Fremont; 10 millionth cited Jul 2026 Fremont.",
      "observedDate": "2026-07-01",
      "slipMonths": 0,
      "costToDate": { "min": 25000000000, "max": 45000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 0, "max": 0 },
      "valueIfHit": 250000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": 0,
      "sources": ["Q2 2026 8-K"]
    },
    {
      "id": "fsd-supervised",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "FSD as a paid supervised product",
      "status": "in_trenches",
      "completionPct": 70,
      "methodology": "1.48M active subs Q2 2026. This is NOT unsupervised.",
      "promisedDate": "2016-10-19",
      "observedDate": "2026-06-30",
      "slipMonths": 72,
      "costToDate": { "min": 15000000000, "max": 30000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 8000000000, "max": 20000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 600000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -400000000000,
      "sources": ["Q2 2026 earnings", "Pay package"]
    },
    {
      "id": "robotaxi",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "Unsupervised Robotaxi / Tesla Network",
      "status": "slipped",
      "completionPct": 24,
      "completionRange": [20, 30],
      "methodology": "Paid unsupervised in a handful of Sun Belt metros. Low millions of paid miles. Not the 2016 sleep-and-earn vision.",
      "promisedDate": "2020-01-01",
      "lastOfficialDate": "2026-09-01",
      "observedDate": "2026-09-04",
      "slipMonths": 60,
      "engineeringBlockers": ["Unit economics vs $0.30/mi", "Fleet size vs Waymo", "Safety-incident veto"],
      "regulatoryBlockers": ["City-by-city AV permits", "California still supervised", "NHTSA"],
      "dependencies": ["fsd-supervised", "cybercab-scale"],
      "costToDate": { "min": 20000000000, "max": 40000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 25000000000, "max": 80000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 800000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -350000000000,
      "mergerRelevance": 88,
      "sources": ["Master Plan II", "Q2 2026", "Pay package 1M commercial robotaxis"]
    },
    {
      "id": "optimus",
      "company": "tesla",
      "title": "Optimus (general-purpose labor product)",
      "status": "in_trenches",
      "completionPct": 14,
      "completionRange": [10, 18],
      "methodology": "Gen-3 frozen. Fremont S/X converted ~late Aug 2026 for internal Academy units, not customer sales.",
      "promisedDate": "2023-12-31",
      "lastOfficialDate": "2027-12-31",
      "observedDate": "2026-08-25",
      "slipMonths": 36,
      "costToDate": { "min": 2000000000, "max": 6000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 20000000000, "max": 80000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 1000000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -120000000000,
      "payPackage": "1 million bots delivered",
      "mergerRelevance": 92,
      "isCrossover": true,
      "sources": ["Earnings 2026", "Pay package"]
    },
    {
      "id": "falcon1",
      "company": "spacex",
      "title": "Falcon 1 orbital",
      "status": "done",
      "completionPct": 100,
      "methodology": "4th flight reached orbit Sep 2008 after 3 failures. 2/5 success. Original near-death trench.",
      "observedDate": "2008-09-28",
      "costToDate": { "min": 100000000, "max": 300000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 0, "max": 0 },
      "valueIfHit": 1800000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": 0,
      "sources": ["Launch log 2008"]
    },
    {
      "id": "falcon9-reuse",
      "company": "spacex",
      "title": "Falcon 9 operational + first-stage reuse",
      "status": "done",
      "completionPct": 98,
      "methodology": "~680+ successful F9 flights. Highest-ROI trench in the empire.",
      "observedDate": "2015-12-21",
      "costToDate": { "min": 1000000000, "max": 3000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 0, "max": 200000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 400000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": 0,
      "sources": ["F9 flight log"]
    },
    {
      "id": "starlink-isp",
      "company": "spacex",
      "title": "Starlink as a real ISP",
      "status": "in_trenches",
      "completionPct": 78,
      "completionRange": [75, 85],
      "methodology": "~12.9k launched, ~11.1k working (Sep 2026). Working global product 75–85%; full authorized constellation + V3 40–55%.",
      "observedDate": "2026-08-31",
      "costToDate": { "min": 10000000000, "max": 20000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 8000000000, "max": 25000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 500000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -200000000000,
      "sources": ["FCC", "KeepTrack Sep 2026"]
    },
    {
      "id": "starship-ops",
      "company": "spacex",
      "title": "Starship to operational orbit + payload deploy + rapid reuse",
      "status": "in_trenches",
      "completionPct": 40,
      "methodology": "Flight 14 targeting first orbital insertion + ~20 Starlink V3. Ship catch delayed. Payload to orbit guided 2H 2026.",
      "promisedDate": "2026-06-30",
      "lastOfficialDate": "2026-09-15",
      "observedDate": null,
      "slipMonths": 6,
      "engineeringBlockers": ["Ship catch delayed", "Heat shield", "Rapid reuse not demonstrated"],
      "regulatoryBlockers": ["FAA license", "FCC payload"],
      "costToDate": { "min": 8000000000, "max": 15000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 8000000000, "max": 20000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 600000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -250000000000,
      "mergerRelevance": 95,
      "sources": ["Flight 14 FCC filing", "SPCX Q2 2026"]
    },
    {
      "id": "mars-2026",
      "company": "spacex",
      "title": "Uncrewed Mars 2026 window (and the slip track)",
      "status": "slipped",
      "completionPct": 8,
      "completionRange": [5, 12],
      "methodology": "Still on some slides. Repeatedly slipped. Useful uncrewed Mars landing 5–12%. Show BOTH the 2026 window AND the slip track.",
      "promisedDate": "2026-11-01",
      "lastOfficialDate": "2029-11-01",
      "slipMonths": 36,
      "dateHistory": [
        { "date": "2024-04-01", "kind": "promised", "label": "2026 uncrewed window on slides" },
        { "date": "2025-06-01", "kind": "revised", "label": "Uncrewed ~3.5y, crew ~5.5y from mid-2025" },
        { "date": "2026-01-01", "kind": "revised", "label": "City push 2031–33 talk" }
      ],
      "costToDate": { "min": 500000000, "max": 2000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 20000000000, "max": 80000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 200000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -60000000000,
      "sources": ["Musk date distribution"]
    },
    {
      "id": "terafab",
      "company": "shared",
      "title": "Terafab (shared chip moonshot)",
      "status": "in_trenches",
      "completionPct": 8,
      "methodology": "Cited ~$55B-class. Framework agreement exists; still subject to separate negotiations. Not a fab.",
      "costToDate": { "min": 200000000, "max": 2000000000 },
      "costToFinish": { "min": 40000000000, "max": 70000000000 },
      "valueIfHit": 300000000000,
      "valueIfMiss": -80000000000,
      "mergerRelevance": 98,
      "isCrossover": true,
      "sources": ["2026 merger coverage", "Related-party / framework"]
    }
  ]
}