Tesla · SpaceX forensic OS
What is done. What is slipping. What it costs.
Not a shrine. Two empires, one spine. Percentages are estimated from public artifacts. You can override any of them.
Tesla empire
est.
Weighted by remaining + spent dollars. Context cards excluded. Not a KPI.
Merge clock
2028+ (delayed)
Delay case. China unsolved, or Starship has not closed orbital-reuse, or SpaceX is still bid-up enough that Tesla holders revolt.
Ives 80–90% over a few years (gossip). Polymarket ~46% announced by end-2027.
Open four gaugesSpaceX empire
est.
Includes shared nodes (Terafab, Starlink-in-cab). Multiplanetary city stays 0%.
Not a fab. A letter of intent.
Explore the shared chip moonshot
Relevance is not completion. It scores how much a trench changes the case for legally combining Tesla and SpaceX. Terafab leads because neither company wants a ~$55B chip bill alone.
Completion
8%
Merge relevance
98
Not a labor product. A pay tranche.
Optimus — the robot that is not a labor product
Fremont Academy units. Useful factory labor is still ~0. One million bots is Elon’s number.
Completion
14%
Merge relevance
92
The file that argues against combining.
Starshield — the regulatory framework
NRO-operated, government-owned. Tesla China and a classified bus do not share a regulator.
Completion
58%
Merge relevance
94
A real ISP. Not Starshield.
Starlink — a real ISP, not a classified bus
~11k working birds. V3 capacity and direct-to-cell are sister trenches. A launch is not constellation completeness.
Completion
78%
Merge relevance
75
Storage compounds. Solar Roof slipped.
Battery, solar, grid — the energy stack
Megapack 3 is in production. 4680 has a run-rate. Solar Roof is still the Master Plan jewel that did not industrialise.
Completion
52%
Merge relevance
55
Daily wire
Open the wireLive headlines plus a forensic pulse on every trench. A ticker move is not a wafer start.
Today’s desk
20 newly opened trenches
Second wave. Completion left, merge relevance right. Neuralink and Boring stay behind Empire mode.
Turn Empire on for Neuralink and Boring Company.
40 newly opened trenches
Third wave. Eight of them are Terafab sub-files — site, node, packaging, talent, CHIPS, offtake, tools, transfer price. Completion left, merge relevance right.
Turn Empire on for X, Grok-the-model, Cursor, and Neuralink Blindsight.
Four independent gauges
Engineering
Valuation
Regulatory
Cash-flow
Ops snapshot
- FSD subs
- 1.48M
- Energy Q2
- 13.5 GWh
- Vehicles
- 10.0M
- Starlink working
- 11,078
- Starlink users
- 10M+
- Starship flights
- 13
Tesla cash ~$43–45B. SpaceX still a capex furnace. Elon sits on both sides of the table: ~13–20% Tesla economic / ~20% votes (options-dependent); SpaceX voting control described ~84% post-IPO. That is the central agency problem.
Slipping / blocked
Tesla empire 44 percent. SpaceX empire 34 percent. Merge window 2028+ (delayed). TSLA 376.37. SPCX 185. All completion figures estimated from public artifacts.