Tesla · SpaceX forensic OS
What is done. What is slipping. What it costs.
Not a shrine. Two empires, one spine. Percentages are estimated from public artifacts. You can override any of them.
Today’s wire
News and reels
Refreshes every day. Tap a reel for the board take.
Updated 2026-10-22 · Last brief
Open wirePulling
spacexFlight 15 is a November catch attempt. Not a cadence.Teslarati · 9d ago
spacexStarlink: 13.6 million subscribers. ARPU is the quiet line.Reuters · 10d ago
spacexSpaceX’s first public-company profit is a compute story.Teslarati · 10d ago
teslaCybercab: “to customers by the end of 2026.” The fleet stays Tesla’s.Teslarati · 8d ago
teslaTesla Q3: in-line revenue, $0.48 EPS. Patience, again.Teslarati · 9d ago
teslaOptimus is still the question shareholders are asking.Investor's Business Daily · 8d agosharedMusk said the quiet word on the SpaceX call: Terafab.Ars Technica · 9d ago
sharedSpecial committees are in the room. There is no term sheet.Reuters · 10d agoTesla empire
est.
Weighted by remaining + spent dollars. Context cards excluded. Not a KPI.
Merge clock
2028+ (delayed)
Delay case. China unsolved, or Starship has not closed orbital-reuse, or SpaceX is still bid-up enough that Tesla holders revolt.
Committees formed 20 Oct 2026. No terms. Ives 80–90% is still gossip.
Open four gaugesSpaceX empire
est.
Includes shared nodes (Terafab, Starlink-in-cab). Multiplanetary city stays 0%.
Not a fab. A letter of intent.
Explore the shared chip moonshot
Relevance is not completion. It scores how much a trench changes the case for legally combining Tesla and SpaceX. Terafab leads because neither company wants a ~$55B chip bill alone.
Completion
8%
Merge relevance
98
Not a labor product. A pay tranche.
Optimus — the robot that is not a labor product
Fremont Academy units. Useful factory labor is still ~0. One million bots is Elon’s number.
Completion
14%
Merge relevance
92
The file that argues against combining.
Starshield — the regulatory framework
NRO-operated, government-owned. Tesla China and a classified bus do not share a regulator.
Completion
58%
Merge relevance
94
Four independent gauges
Engineering
Valuation
Regulatory
Cash-flow
Ops snapshot
- FSD subs
- 1.48M
- Q3 deliveries
- 486,532
- Vehicles
- 10.0M
- Starlink working
- 11,078
- Starlink users
- 13.6M
- Starship flights
- 14
Tesla cash ~$43–45B. SpaceX printed a Q3 profit and guided $35–40B of Q4 capex. Elon sits on both sides of the table: ~13–20% Tesla economic / ~20% votes (options-dependent); SpaceX voting control described ~84% post-IPO. That is the central agency problem.
Slipping / blocked
Tesla empire 45 percent. SpaceX empire 30 percent. Merge window 2028+ (delayed). TSLA 376.37. SPCX 185. All completion figures estimated from public artifacts.