Disclaimer · 20 seconds
TRENCHES is a forensic operating system for Tesla and SpaceX objectives. Percentages are estimates from public artifacts — Master Plans, earnings, S-1s, FAA/FCC, NASA, trackers — not official KPIs. If something is a demo, it is labeled a demo. If a date moved, the old date is crossed out.
A merger module is game theory, not fanfic. Elon sits on both sides of the table. China is the silent killer. Combining them “might make Elon’s life a little easier.” That is the honest executive reason.
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Peers, not press
Tesla robotaxi
Low millions cumulative (Q2 ~2.5M paid robotaxi miles cited)
Waymo
Multi-million per week class; years of geofenced scale in several cities
Waymo is the scaled unsupervised service. Tesla is a paid pilot with a bigger narrative.
SpaceX
Dominant. F9 cadence industrial; Starship not yet operational orbit+payload.
ULA / Blue Origin
ULA: national-security cadence, no reuse factory. Blue: New Glenn early, not F9.
SpaceX already won medium-lift. Heavy cheap lift is the open fight, and it is vs physics more than vs ULA.
Starlink
~12.9k launched / ~11.1k working (Sep 2026)
Kuiper
Early hundreds to low thousands depending on the week — not a peer network yet
Starlink is the network. Kuiper is a funding story with rockets on order.
Terafab (Tesla+SpaceX)
Cited ~$55B-class. Framework agreement. 8% complete. Not a fab.
TSMC / Nvidia tenant
The actual queue both companies sit in today. Capacity, export controls, packaging.
Terafab is the merge argument. TSMC is the factory. Do not confuse a letter of intent with a process node.