TRENCHES
TSLA376.37+0.0%
SPCX185.00+0.0%
Tape1

Proxy · earnings mentions, X, capex guidance

Elon attention heatmap

Capital follows attention. These scores are forensic proxies, not a telemetry feed from his calendar. No face. No minutes. A joke on stage is not capex.

Reconstruction — empty split stage, scarlet vs navy house lights. Attention as lighting, not a person.
Reconstruction — empty split stage, scarlet vs navy house lights. Attention as lighting, not a person.
Reconstruction — unlabeled ticker wall, red and blue traces. After hours. A squeeze is not a product.
Reconstruction — unlabeled ticker wall, red and blue traces. After hours. A squeeze is not a product.

Tesla · 2026 Q3

78

Cybercab paid rides + Flight 14 orbital filing. Capital is following both.

SpaceX · 2026 Q3

88

Capital followed the print

Not a calendar. Four public artifacts, scored 0–100, labeled estimates.

0–100

est. from public artifacts

Tesla vs SpaceX, period scores

Not a calendar. Four public artifacts, scored 0–100, labeled estimates.

2023

Tesla70
SpaceX55

FSD v12 + Cybertruck + Starship IFT-1.

2024

Tesla62
SpaceX72

Robotaxi unveil; Starship catch; political year.

2025

Tesla58
SpaceX80

xAI combination talk; Starship cadence; pay package.

2026 H1

Tesla64
SpaceX90

SpaceX IPO dominates. Tesla is the other ticker.

2026 Q3

Tesla78
SpaceX88

Cybercab paid rides + Flight 14 orbital filing. Capital is following both.

Lane heatmap, 2026 Q3

  • SpaceX IPO / print

    T 22 · S 96

    The 2026 ticker that ate the year. Capital followed the print, not a Starship cadence KPI.

  • Starship / Flight 14

    T 14 · S 92

    Orbital attempt NET 15 Sep. Ship catch is a sister trench. A filing is not a catch.

  • Robotaxi / Cybercab

    T 88 · S 12

    Paid-ride talk + a line that started Feb 2026. Miles that look like a business are still the missing number.

  • Pay package / board

    T 80 · S 40

    Agency file. Both-sides problem. A package is not a merger agreement.

  • Terafab / AI5

    T 70 · S 74

    The ~$55B chip bill neither wants alone. Still a letter of intent. No wafer starts on this card.

  • Optimus Academy

    T 72 · S 18

    Fremont conversion. Useful factory labor is still ~0. One million bots is a pay-tranche number.

  • China / Starshield

    T 60 · S 84

    The combination killer. Tesla China vs a classified bus. Attention here is forensic, not patriotic.

  • Energy / Megapack

    T 48 · S 16

    Quiet compounder. Storage-led GWh. Does not launder Solar Roof.

  • Semi / freight

    T 36 · S 6

    Ceremonial Sparks open. Low merge relevance. A truck plant is not a SpaceX node.

  • Solar Roof

    T 18 · S 4

    The Master Plan jewel that did not industrialise. Attention has left the building.

How the proxy is built

  • Earnings mentions

    What got a named slide or a Musk answer. Not minutes on stage. A joke is not capex.

  • X / public posts

    Forensic count of named-product posts, not an engagement API. Bots and replies are stripped in spirit, not in a purchased firehose.

  • Capex guidance

    Where the 10-Q said dollars would go. Guidance is not spend. Spend is not yield.

  • Ticker gravity

    Which story moved TSLA vs SPCX in the window. A squeeze is not a product.

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