Completion
8%
range 5–12%
est. from public artifacts
Since last quarter +2 pts · last official Jul 1 2026
Gold-lane node · merge relevance 98
Terafab — the shared chip moonshot
A cited ~$55B-class captive advanced-packaging / process node that would feed Tesla inference and SpaceX AI satellites. Framework agreement exists. Projects still “subject to separate negotiations.” Score it as a letter of intent, not a factory.
Completion
8%
5–12%
Merge relevance
98
Relevance
Cited bill
~$55B
$40.0B–$70.0B
Tesla inference Cars · Optimus · Cortex
TERAFAB shared node
SpaceX silicon AI sats · Starlink V3
Today both companies are tenants. Terafab is the argument they should not be.
Daily desk · live + forensic
Today’s update
Sep 15 2026
Completion tape
- Q1'24 0%
- Q3'24 1%
- Q1'25 3%
- Q3'25 5%
- Q1'26 6%
- Q3'26 8%
IN TRENCHES
X1
Terafab (shared chip moonshot)
Merge relevance 98
Child trenches · % complete
Today’s still
Today’s video
Stills
Reconstruction — empty packaging hall. Not a Tesla/SpaceX cleanroom. No wafer starts on this card. 
Reconstruction — a fenced Texas plot. Dirt is not a process node. Site file (TF1) is still 12%. 
A wafer. Inference for cars, bots, and sats is the cited bill. Yield is not on the page.
Videos
Reconstruction · Empty hall recon — Reconstruction clip. A dark bay is not a fab. Label it as such. Reconstruction · TERAFAB explainer — Unofficial explainer. Not a wafer start. Not Tesla footage of a plant that does not exist. Reconstruction · Terafab launch event — Event talk. Applause is not a tool order. Framework remains subject to separate negotiations.
Eight information trenches
The parent card is a letter of intent. These eight files are what a real fab would have to clear. Bills stay on the parent so the rings do not double-count ~$55B.
What a fab actually is
- 1. Dirt, power, water, a state incentive — then a process letter, not a slogan.
- 2. Packaging is the scarce step. CoWoS-class, not a 2 nm fairy tale.
- 3. A yield org and an ASML slot. Neither has shipped.
- 4. Offtake split and a transfer-pricing collar a Tesla minority can take to court.
Pulse
2026-09-11
Terafab still an LOI. Eight child files opened on the board.
Promised
A captive advanced-packaging / process node so neither company sits in a TSMC queue forever — inference for cars and bots, silicon for AI satellites.
Shipped
A cited number, a framework agreement, and a name in a bio. Related-party talk. Not a clean room.
Missing
The fab. The process. The $55B. The talent. Customers other than themselves. CHIPS / CFIUS path. Transfer pricing a Tesla minority holder can audit.
Why this is the merge trench
Highest merge-relevance node in the set (98). Not because a factory exists — because the bill is large enough that combining the P&Ls is the only politically honest way to eat it. Tesla holders funding a fab for SpaceX sats is the conflict. A merger collapses the related-party file. That is the trench.
- Shared necessity40/40
- Bill neither wants alone30/30
- Agency conflict20/20
- Execution (LOI is real, fab is not)8/10
- Total98/100
IN TRENCHES
This is not a fab
No public yield. No wafer starts as a Tesla/SpaceX plant. Elon’s bio pointing at Terafab is not a process node. 5–12% complete, estimated from public artifacts.
The bill neither wants alone
Cost to date is unknown design/pre-fab spend ($0.2–2B range). Cost to finish is the cited ~$55B-class ($40–70B). Value if hit: inference independence for cars, bots, sats (~$300B option). Value if miss: both remain Nvidia/TSMC tenants; the merge case weakens (~−$80B).
Cost to date
$200M–$2.0B
Unknown — design/pre-fab spend; estimate range
Cost to finish
$40.0B–$70.0B
Cited ~$55B-class. Shared bill.
Value if hit
$300.0B
Inference independence for cars, bots, sats
Value if miss
−$80.0B
Both remain Nvidia/TSMC tenants; merge case weakens
$ / remaining point
$598M
Remaining cost divided by remaining %. A 90%-done cheap item does not look like a 15%-done civilization-scale item.
Hit $300.0B · Miss −$80.0B
Engineering gates
- Process node choice
- Advanced packaging
- Talent
- Yield
Regulatory gates
- CHIPS / CFIUS
- Export controls
- State incentives