TRENCHES is a forensic operating system for Tesla and SpaceX objectives. Percentages are estimates from public artifacts — Master Plans, earnings, S-1s, FAA/FCC, NASA, trackers — not official KPIs. If something is a demo, it is labeled a demo. If a date moved, the old date is crossed out.
A merger module is game theory, not fanfic. Elon sits on both sides of the table. China is the silent killer. Combining them “might make Elon’s life a little easier.” That is the honest executive reason.
Tesla is the cash cow. SpaceX is the capex furnace. SpaceX printed above Tesla. Morningstar-style work says Tesla holders may only accept 50–66% of a combined equity. China is the silent killer. Elon sits on both sides (~13–20% Tesla economic, ~84% SpaceX votes). Combining them “might make Elon’s life a little easier.”
Base-case window: late 2027 – mid 2028. Earlier if Flight 14+ deploys V3 to orbit, robotaxi miles look like a business, and an independent Tesla committee publishes a collar. Later if China blocks, a robotaxi fatality freezes NHTSA, Starship fails the orbital-reuse loop, or SpaceX stays bid-up.
Do not confuse supervised FSD with autonomy, an HLS award with a landing, an IPO print with a DCF, or a 2026 Mars slide with a city.