SpaceXFAA / pad trackersSep 11 2026
Starship Flight 14 remains NET 15 September — orbital attempt, not a ship catchDesk · live + forensic
The wire
Live headlines from public feeds, then a forensic pulse on every trench. Tape is not a shrine. Completion figures stay estimated from public artifacts.
Live headlines
Live · Sep 11 2026
- TeslaTesla / NevadaSep 11 2026Tesla Semi Sparks plant inauguration set for 24 September — ceremonial, not nameplate
- SpaceXCFO commentary 10 SepSep 10 2026SpaceX AI hosting: third cloud deal cited ~$1.11B/month from 1 December, 90-day outs
- SpaceXT-Mobile / FCCSep 10 2026T-Mobile calls satellite-from-space 5G threat 'laughable' as EchoStar spectrum file sits at FCC
- SpaceXS-1 / local loadSep 3 2026Colossus 2 described as gigawatt-class; Memphis power and emissions remain the constraint
- MergeTRENCHES deskSep 11 2026Terafab remains a cited ~$55B framework — no site, no node, no tool order
- TeslaYahoo FinanceSep 11 2026Tesla tape: live price is not robotaxi unit economics and not a China FSD approval
- SpaceXUSSF trackersSep 1 2026National Security Space Launch: SpaceX still the only active flyer in public catalogs
- TeslaTRENCHES deskSep 11 2026Optimus Academy units at Fremont — useful factory labor still scored ~0
- SpaceXKeepTrack / FCCSep 11 2026Starlink trackers: ~12.9k launched / ~11.1k working — V3 capacity is a different trench
- TeslaEnergy notesAug 1 2026Megapack 3 in production — energy GWh is storage-led, not Solar Roof
- TeslaTRENCHES deskAug 1 2026Solar Roof remains the slipped Master Plan jewel. Powerwall 3 attach is a different file.
Pulse on every trench
One pulse per trench. Curated desk on top of auto last-official notes.
- SpaceXforensicJan 1 20337% · rel 55
Super Heavy + Ship cadence for a Mars window: in trenches · 7% est · rel 55
5–10%. Do not score pad concrete as cadence. A Mars window is a logistics problem SpaceX has not started.
Flight cadence - SpaceXforensicJan 1 20330% · rel 30
Multiplanetary city: context — not scored in the rings · 0% est · rel 30
0%. Infrastructure studies ≠ a city. A vanity 5% would be a lie. Moon <10 years is the more plausible slogan; still not a city.
IAC / public Mars talks - MergeforensicJan 1 20304% · rel 40
Mars ECLSS / surface life support: context — not scored in the rings · 4% est · rel 40
4% and context. Do not let this vote in the rings. The crossover is real as a story (Tesla energy + Optimus + Starship) and zero as a file. Q stays 0% for the city.
IAC Mars architecture - SpaceXforensicNov 1 20298% · rel 80
Uncrewed Mars 2026 window (and the slip track): slipped · 8% est · rel 80
The app shows BOTH the 2026 window AND the slip track. First uncrewed more like ~3.5 years and crew ~5.5 from mid-2025 comments. A real city push 2031–33. Score 5–12% of a useful uncrewed landing. Not a city.
Window ephemeris - MergeforensicNov 1 20296% · rel 90
Optimus as Mars / Moon labor: in trenches · 6% est · rel 90
6%. Do not score sci-fi as progress. The merge relevance is high because the story requires both companies; the engineering is not.
Mars slides - SpaceXforensicDec 1 202824% · rel 50
Starship HLS / Artemis path: slipped · 24% est · rel 50
20–30% of 'land cargo then crew on Moon with Starship.' Musk has said Moon <10 years is more plausible than Mars. A lunar self-growing city is a new slogan, not a scored city.
HLS / Artemis - SpaceXforensicJan 1 20283% · rel 30
Earth-to-Earth Starship: context — not scored in the rings · 3% est · rel 30
3%. Do not give this a vanity 10%. Distinct from Mars (N/Q), from $100/kg (P), from HLS (M). A suborbital cargo demo would move it; a keynote will not. Merge relevance is a story, not a file.
IAC Earth-to-Earth - TeslaforensicDec 31 202728% · rel 18
Next-gen affordable / compact LFP platform: slipped · 28% est · rel 18
This is the original Plan I remainder. Robotaxi/Cybercab absorbed the political oxygen. Score 20–35% (platform + planning, zero shipping $25k volume car).
Master Plan I + III - TeslaforensicDec 31 202714% · rel 92
Optimus (general-purpose labor product): in trenches · 14% est · rel 92
Internal units ≠ a labor product. Score 10–18% of a general-purpose labor product. Do not give this a vanity 30 because the line exists. The 2025 pay package explicitly ties a huge tranche to 1M Optimus — that is Elon's incentive, not a shipment forecast.
Q2/Q3 2026 Optimus notes - TeslaforensicJun 1 202718% · rel 80
Cybercab scale (unboxed, ~$30k, ~$0.30/mi): in trenches · 18% est · rel 80
Started ≠ scaled. Score 15–25%. The $30k / $0.30/mi pair is a design target. Do not put it in the shipped column.
Q2 2026 production start - SpaceXforensicDec 31 202618% · rel 70
Full-scale orbital cryogenic propellant transfer: in trenches · 18% est · rel 70
5 t ≠ a depot. Mars and HLS both gate on this. Score it as a demo until a tanker flies to a ship and fills it.
HLS depot requirement - TeslaforensicDec 31 202640% · rel 85
Dojo / Cortex / AI5–AI6 / in-house inference: in trenches · 40% est · rel 85
Score ~40% of independence, not 40% of 'we have GPUs.' The real trench is the vehicle AI + robotaxi stack. Terafab is the shared moonshot that actually moves merge math.
AI capex notes - TeslaforensicDec 31 202638% · rel 40
Vertical materials (4680, LFP, Li refinery, cathode): in trenches · 38% est · rel 40
Score 30–50% of the factory stack, not of 'energy independence.' Run-rate claims ≠ cost leadership proven in COGS.
Cell/refinery notes 2026 - SpaceXforensicDec 1 202620% · rel 65
Starship as $10s–$100s/kg launch: in trenches · 20% est · rel 65
20%. A slide of a cost curve is not a price. Do not put $100/kg in the shipped column.
S-1 cost talk - SpaceXforensicSep 15 202618% · rel 72
Starlink V3 mass deploy via Starship: in trenches · 18% est · rel 72
Suborbital ≠ constellation. Score 15–25% until V3s are working in orbit. Flight 14 is the gate. Current 10M-class users need new hardware before V3 is a consumer story.
Flight 14 FCC - SpaceXopsSep 11 202640% · rel 95
Flight 14 still NET 15 Sep. Ship catch is not on the card.
Four days out. First true orbital attempt with ~20 V3. A beautiful stack is not a cadence. Ship catch sits on AB, delayed.
FAA manifest / pad trackers - TeslaforensicSep 11 202618% · rel 28
Unsupervised highway is not the Austin geofence.
Robotaxi is downtown. This card is I-10 at night. Still not a customer SKU.
TRENCHES desk - TeslaforensicSep 11 202634% · rel 18
Insurance is a named-state book, not a national carrier.
Robotaxi unit economics quietly assume this trench exists. Not a 10-K segment.
DOI / services notes - TeslaforensicSep 11 20267% · rel 22
No shipping OEM is running Tesla FSD as their ADAS.
NACS winning the plug is not FSD winning the stack. 7%.
TRENCHES desk - TAPEmarketSep 11 2026
Tape is not a wafer start. TSLA and SPCX both live; greed is a mood.
Refresh the header. A green day does not move Terafab, the committee, or Flight 14. Stale tape is labeled stale.
Yahoo / Alternative.me - MergeforensicSep 11 20268% · rel 98
Terafab still an LOI. Eight child files opened on the board.
Site, node, packaging, talent, CHIPS, offtake, tools, transfer price. Parent stays 8% / relevance 98. Children do not recost the $55B into the SpaceX ring.
TRENCHES desk - TeslaopsSep 11 202642% · rel 12
Sparks Semi inauguration still on the 24th. Ceremonial ≠ 50k/yr.
High-volume line has been running since April. Nameplate is the missing piece. Unbundled from Cybertruck.
Tesla / Nevada notes - SpaceXopsSep 10 202642% · rel 45
T-Mobile: satellite threat 'laughable.' Next-gen 5G sats 'next year.'
T-Satellite is real for dead-zone text. Indoor 5G from LEO is still physics. Distinct from Starlink-the-ISP and from Starlink-in-cab.
T-Mobile / SpaceX CFO 10 Sep - SpaceXmarketSep 10 202650% · rel 72
Third CSA ~$1.11B/mo from Dec 1. 90-day outs. $100B ARR is a run-rate claim.
CFO talk is not FY revenue. Anthropic and Google already on the page. Power to deliver December load is the engineering gate on Colossus.
Goldman / SpaceX commentary 10 Sep - MergeforensicSep 3 202635% · rel 81
Tesla Megapacks at Colossus: in trenches · 35% est · rel 81
35% of a related-party power offtake. Do not score Starbase (X3) as Memphis. Emissions lawsuits are the sister risk. High merge relevance because Tesla energy invoicing SpaceX compute is the same agency swamp as Terafab.
Colossus power - SpaceXopsSep 3 202662% · rel 80
Colossus 2 cited GW-class. Power and lawsuits are the product.
The cluster exists. Turbines and interconnect are the constraint. Tesla Megapacks at Colossus is now its own trench (X8).
S-1 / local load notes - SpaceXforensicSep 1 202628% · rel 44
Starship heat-shield life: in trenches · 28% est · rel 44
28% of a reusable shield. Reentry once is not life. $100/kg (P) is a slide until this is boring. Cost overlapping Starship — keep finish modest.
V3 reentry / tiles - SpaceXforensicSep 1 202640% · rel 55
Raptor 3 production factory: in trenches · 40% est · rel 55
40% of a production system, not 40% of 'Raptor 3 exists.' The risk card (Raptor yield) is the failure mode. This card is the factory. Mars cadence (L) sits on this. Do not double-count the engine photograph onto Starship ops.
Raptor 3 on V3 flights - TeslaforensicSep 1 202624% · rel 88
Unsupervised Robotaxi / Tesla Network: slipped · 24% est · rel 88
A geofenced paid demo-plus-pilot is not a network. Score 20–30% of the 2016 vision. Unsupervised miles that look like a business would move the merge clock; a fatality that freezes NHTSA would stop it.
Master Plan II - SpaceXforensicSep 1 202678% · rel 75
Starlink as a real ISP: in trenches · 78% est · rel 75
Score working global product 75–85%, full authorized constellation + V3 capacity 40–55%. Miss = SpaceX stays a contractor. Hit = infrastructure monopoly in LEO comms. Do not mix the two percentages on one ring.
FCC constellation - SpaceXforensicSep 1 202620% · rel 76
Starshield PNT / GPS alternative: in trenches · 20% est · rel 76
20% of a mission class, 0% of 'GPS is obsolete.' Score a named offtake, not a press leak. Merge relevance is the same FOCI file as Starshield — Tesla-China does not belong on a PNT bird.
Starshield mission classes - SpaceXforensicSep 1 202636% · rel 50
Starship / Super Heavy factory rate: in trenches · 36% est · rel 50
36% of a vehicle factory. A stacked photograph is not a rate. Mars window (L) and $100/kg (P) both sit here. Do not double-count Raptor (W).
Starbase production - SpaceXopsSep 1 202618% · rel 48
Ship catch delayed. Booster catch is not this card.
39A catch roof still finishing. Heat shield (AJ) is the sister gate. Flight 14 is not a catch attempt.
Pad / FAA notes - SpaceXopsSep 1 202648% · rel 40
39A catch roof / chopsticks / deluge still finishing. A pad is not a flight.
SLC-37 is a third-site child (AH) at 14%. Do not score 39A progress as 37.
Pad progress Sep 2026 - SpaceXregulatorySep 1 202672% · rel 78
SpaceX still the only active NSSL flyer in public trackers.
Monopoly cadence is cash and a FOCI magnet. Combining with Tesla-China is how you lose this file.
USSF / launch trackers - SpaceXforensicSep 1 20264% · rel 82
1 TW in orbit remains a slogan. Colossus is dirt.
Needs Starship + Tesla energy + Terafab + xAI demand. Execution near zero. Cost-to-finish stays zero so it does not swamp the ring.
Abundance stack 2026 - SpaceXforensicAug 31 202655% · rel 20
Starlink Aviation + Maritime: in trenches · 55% est · rel 20
48–65% of the mobility vertical, not of 'we replaced inflight Wi-Fi forever.' Do not dump this into the ISP ring. Low merge relevance except as cash that funds Starship.
SPCX connectivity segment - TeslaforensicAug 1 202645% · rel 50
Virtual power plant / Autobidder: in trenches · 45% est · rel 50
Believe the sites. Do not believe 'grid company' until software is a disclosed margin line. 38–55%. Crossover because Starbase/compute load is a captive offtaker for the same stack (X3).
Energy software notes - TeslaforensicAug 1 202652% · rel 55
Energy beachhead (Powerwall / Megapack / SolarCity): in trenches · 52% est · rel 55
Score the storage business as real (~60% of a grid-company vision) and solar-roof-as-mass-product at ~40–55%. Do not average them into a vanity 80%. Q2 2026 energy revenue $3.14B on 13.5 GWh; 2025 deployed 46.7 GWh.
Q2 2026 - SpaceXforensicAug 1 202625% · rel 10
ISS United States Deorbit Vehicle: in trenches · 25% est · rel 10
25% of a contracted unique vehicle, 0% of a re-entry. Distinct from Crew/Cargo Dragon (D) and from HLS (M). Merge relevance near zero — this is a NASA end-of-life tug, not a Tesla node.
USDV award 2024 - TeslaforensicAug 1 202652% · rel 60
Megapack 3 / Megafactory / grid services: in trenches · 52% est · rel 60
Believe the GWh. Do not believe the 'grid company' slogan until software/services are a disclosed high-margin segment. 45–60%.
Aug 2026 Megapack 3 - TeslaforensicAug 1 20268% · rel 55
Roadster 2 (and the A71 SpaceX package): slipped · 8% est · rel 55
Do not let this hide inside Roadster 1 (closed 2008). Score 5–12% of a shipping halo, 0% of a flying car. The A71 package is why merge relevance is not zero — it is a SpaceX hardware cameo on a Tesla SKU, and it has not shipped. Deposits are not revenue.
2017 unveil - SpaceXforensicAug 1 202610% · rel 42
Starship tanker / depot vehicle: in trenches · 10% est · rel 42
10% of a tanker SKU. Do not score a cryo-transfer test as a tanker factory. HLS (M) dies without this. Mars cadence (L) dies without this.
HLS tanker/depot need - TeslaopsAug 1 202658% · rel 32
Powerwall 3 is a SKU. Attach is not a grid company.
Autobidder is the software. Megapack is the GWh. Roof is the slip. Keep the four energy files separate.
Energy notes - TeslaforensicAug 1 202622% · rel 8
Energy GWh is storage-led. Solar Roof remains the slipped roof.
Do not let Megapack launder Master Plan 'every roof.' Powerwall 3 attach is a different trench.
Energy notes - SpaceXforensicJul 24 2026100% · rel 70
Starship integrated flight-test program exists: closed trench · 100% est · rel 70
Score 'exists and iterates' 100%. Score 'fully reusable cheap heavy lift in operational service' on card J, ~35–45%. Do not smuggle operations into existence.
Starship flight list - TeslaforensicJul 23 202670% · rel 70
FSD as a paid supervised product: in trenches · 70% est · rel 70
Supervised productization ~70%. Unsupervised general driving 25–40% and lives on the Robotaxi card. Do not let subscription count launder the autonomy claim. FSD Supervised ≠ autonomy — see glossary.
Q2 2026 1.48M subs - MergeforensicJul 23 202638% · rel 89
Grok in Tesla vehicles: in trenches · 38% est · rel 89
30–48% of an in-cabin feature, ~0% of FSD. The conflict card already says this; the trench scores the product. After the combination, Tesla is buying AI from SpaceX whether holders voted or not. High merge relevance because staying separate cements a transfer-pricing swamp.
Q2 2026 Grok in cars - MergeforensicJul 23 202622% · rel 86
Starlink in Cybercab / robotaxi: in trenches · 22% est · rel 86
Related-party traffic. Price the conflict, not the press photo. 22%.
Framework agreement - MergeforensicJul 23 202630% · rel 83
Tesla–SpaceX talent secondment: in trenches · 30% est · rel 83
30% of a practice, 0% of a policy. The S-1's Tesla mentions are the receipt. A merger legalizes the commute. Separation is a gift of option-pool training one way or the other.
Tesla mentions - MergeforensicJul 23 202614% · rel 64
Tesla-sold Starlink hardware: in trenches · 14% est · rel 64
14% of a channel idea. A photo of a dish in a showroom is not a SKU. Related-party retail is the small cousin of Terafab — same agency, smaller bill.
Framework - TeslaforensicJul 23 202615% · rel 25
Unboxed process / Giga Mexico: slipped · 15% est · rel 25
Do not score a Texas Cybercab line as a Mexican factory. 10–22% of the process trench. Mexico remaining a dirt pile is the tell that affordable volume was absorbed by robotaxi politics.
Investor day 2023 - TeslaregulatoryJul 23 202616% · rel 71
FSD China / EU still a political file. Supervised remains a US-led SKU.
Blocked. A Starshield parent makes Beijing less likely to bless the stack, not more. Silent killer, product edition.
Q2 2026 - MergeregulatoryJul 23 202615% · rel 96
'Appropriate process' is not a committee. Texas venue is not a fairness opinion.
Highest process relevance (96). Default independentCommittee toggle stays off. Transfer-pricing collar (TF8) is the invoice next to it.
Q2 2026 call - MergeforensicJul 23 202612% · rel 91
Digital Optimus named on the Q2 call. Not the walking robot.
Computer-use agent. Grok as manager. Tesla AI4 hardware talk. No SKU in segment reporting.
Q2 2026 - MergeregulatoryJul 23 20264% · rel 93
Framework still 'subject to separate negotiations.' No wafer split.
Tesla inference vs SpaceX rad-hard is the demand file. Without it Terafab is Tesla cash building a sat fab.
Q2 2026 / S-1 - MergeforensicJul 23 20266% · rel 90
Grok is in the cabin. Grok does not drive.
X10 is 6%. FSD is still Tesla's stack. A SpaceX-owned driving model would be the related-party brain Tesla's pay package sits on.
Q2 2026 - MergemarketJul 23 202655% · rel 88
Tesla booked ~$1B MTM on SpaceX holdings. A merger has to net this out.
Tesla is already long the other side. Exchange ratio that ignores the stake is a double count.
Q2 2026 10-Q - MergeforensicJul 22 20262% · rel 94
Terafab transfer-pricing collar: in trenches · 2% est · rel 94
2%. Highest child relevance (94) because without a collar Terafab is Tesla cash donated to SpaceX sats, or the reverse. X7 is venue+committee. This is the number on the invoice. Default independentCommittee stays off.
Appropriate process - TeslaforensicJul 1 2026100% · rel 25
1 million through 10 millionth vehicle: closed trench · 100% est · rel 25
Q2 2026 ended at 9.7M all-time deliveries (480,126 in the quarter). The 10M badge is a factory-tour number, not a profit number. Value is the installed base for FSD data and energy attach.
Delivery tracker - MergeforensicJul 1 20268% · rel 90
Terafab CHIPS / CFIUS / export: in trenches · 8% est · rel 90
8% of a regulatory file, 0% of an award. CHIPS guardrails on China plus SpaceX ITAR plus Tesla Shanghai is the pretzel. This is why Terafab is a merge trench — the collar is easier as one P&L or impossible as two.
CHIPS / CFIUS as Terafab gates - MergeforensicJul 1 20266% · rel 82
Terafab process node: in trenches · 6% est · rel 82
6%. 'Advanced' is marketing. A 2 nm fantasy and a CoWoS-class packaging house are different companies. Score the decision, not the slogan. Parent keeps the capex.
Terafab commentary - MergeforensicJul 1 20269% · rel 84
Terafab advanced packaging: in trenches · 9% est · rel 84
9% of a packaging house, 0% of CoWoS. This is the honest Terafab — not a 2 nm fairy tale. Still a letter. Parent X1 holds the bill.
Advanced-packaging / process node - MergeforensicJul 1 202612% · rel 70
Terafab site / state incentives: in trenches · 12% est · rel 70
12% of a siting file, 0% of a graded lot. A bio pointing at Terafab is not a rezoning. Parent X1 stays the $55B bill. This card is only the dirt.
2026 merger coverage - MergeforensicJul 1 20265% · rel 80
Terafab talent / yield org: in trenches · 5% est · rel 80
5%. Elon cannot tweet a yield org into existence. Poaching TSMC is a multi-year file and a diplomatic incident. Do not score Tesla Autopilot talent as fab talent.
Talent as Terafab gate - MergeforensicJul 1 20263% · rel 85
Terafab tools / EUV queue: in trenches · 3% est · rel 85
3%. Tool lead times are the silent clock on every 'fab by 2028' slide. Packaging-only (TF3) needs a different train. Do not score a slogan as a High-NA reservation.
No ASML reservation disclosed - TeslaforensicJun 30 202632% · rel 18
Closed-loop battery recycling (Nevada): in trenches · 32% est · rel 18
Dirt and a hydromet line are not energy independence. Score 25–40% of a closed loop. Do not double-count with T13 vertical materials. Merge relevance low.
Materials notes - TeslaforensicJun 30 202628% · rel 16
Texas lithium refinery (unbundled): in trenches · 28% est · rel 16
Unbundle from T13. 20–36% of a refinery, 0% of 'energy independence.' Parent T13 remains the stack score. This card is dirt and chemistry on the Gulf.
Lithium refinery notes - SpaceXforensicJun 30 202645% · rel 12
Polaris / commercial crew beyond NASA: in trenches · 45% est · rel 12
45% of a commercial-crew product line, 5% of 'space tourism is a business.' Low merge relevance. Do not dump this into Dragon-the-NASA-contractor.
Polaris Dawn - SpaceXforensicJun 30 202652% · rel 26
Starlink enterprise / backhaul / cellular: in trenches · 52% est · rel 26
52% of an enterprise vertical. Do not dump into ISP or mobility. Cash that funds Starship. Modest merge relevance except as robotaxi/ops backhaul cousin of X2.
Connectivity mix - SpaceXforensicJun 30 202660% · rel 58
Starlink Government (civil / DoD unclassified): in trenches · 60% est · rel 58
60% of an unclassified gov SKU. Do not launder this into Starshield. The China merge problem is milder here than on G, but it is not zero — Tesla-China still reads badly next to DoD broadband.
Starlink Gov - SpaceXforensicJun 30 202664% · rel 34
Starlink optical ISL mesh: in trenches · 64% est · rel 34
64% of a mesh. Do not score it as V3. DTC, aviation, and Starshield all drink from this. Modest merge relevance except as robotaxi/denied-area backhaul.
ISL on recent shells - TeslaforensicJun 30 202672% · rel 8
Supercharger / NACS as a network: in trenches · 72% est · rel 8
Score 65–80% of a North American network standard, not of global charging. The plug winning is not the same as Tesla owning every electron. Low merge relevance — SpaceX does not charge cars.
Energy / services notes - TeslaopsJun 30 202648% · rel 24
4680 >40 GWh run-rate claimed. Run-rate is not COGS leadership.
Unbundled from T13. Lithium refinery is T30. Parent keeps the dollars so the Tesla ring does not double-count.
Cell notes 2026 - TeslaopsJun 30 202668% · rel 14
Giga Berlin is a volume plant. Permits and water are still live.
Score 68%, not 100. Europe is not 'done' because a Giga exists.
Production trackers - SpaceXforensicJun 19 202658% · rel 94
Starshield (NRO proliferated LEO): in trenches · 58% est · rel 94
Score working proliferated ISR/comms 50–65%. Do not score Golden Dome as Starshield. Merge relevance 94 because this file is the argument against combining with Tesla-in-China, not for it. Contractor ≠ operator. NRO flies the bird.
SpaceX S-1 (redacted Starshield) - TeslaregulatoryJun 13 202640% · rel 74
Pay package still a Texas/holder file. Delaware voided 2018; that is not 'back.'
Operational tranches (bots, robotaxis) sit on other cards. This is the legal instrument.
Proxy / Texas venue - SpaceXforensicJun 12 2026100% · rel 90
SpaceX IPO (capital-markets trench): closed trench · 100% est · rel 90
Capital-markets trench: 100%. Morningstar-style fair value sat ~$60–63/sh (~$780–830B). The print being above Tesla is the valuation-fairness problem on the merge clock, not a physics result.
SPCX S-1 / June 2026 - MergeforensicJun 1 202635% · rel 78
Tesla energy for Starbase / compute: in trenches · 35% est · rel 78
35%. Electrons are flowing. Transfer pricing is the fight.
Q2 2026 $1B SPCX MTM - SpaceXforensicMar 1 202616% · rel 15
Commercial LEO destination (Starlab / Haven class): in trenches · 16% est · rel 15
16% of a destination, 0% of a station. USDV (U) is the tug. This is the next building. Do not score a partnership press release as a habitat.
Commercial LEO / ISS transition - SpaceXforensicFeb 1 202614% · rel 22
SLC-37 Starship pad (third orbital site): in trenches · 14% est · rel 22
14% of a third pad, 0% of a flight. Do not score 39A progress as SLC-37. Cadence diversity is the product.
KSC Starship EIS - TeslaforensicJun 1 20250% · rel 40
Master Plan IV abundance / AI / robots wrapper: context — not scored in the rings · 0% est · rel 40
Do not double-count. Score T8–T14. This card exists so the wrapper cannot hide slip on the underlying trenches.
Master Plan IV (2025) - TeslaforensicNov 30 202355% · rel 15
Segment expansion: Cybertruck (Semi unbundled): in trenches · 55% est · rel 15
Treat Cybertruck as an ongoing quality/demand trench, not a victory lap. Semi is scored on T17 (Nevada high-volume line Apr 2026, ceremonial open Sep 24). Do not double-count the plant.
Master Plan II - TeslaforensicMar 1 20230% · rel 0
Master Plan III world-scale items Tesla does not operate: context — not scored in the rings · 0% est · rel 0
CONTEXT / NOT TESLA-OWNED. The app will not score this as a Tesla trench. Publishing a slide is not operating a fuels business.
Master Plan III - SpaceXforensicApr 16 2021100% · rel 45
NASA Commercial Crew + cargo + HLS award: closed trench · 100% est · rel 45
Award ≠ landing. This card is 100% of 'won the contract.' Execution is a different trench. HLS miss = Artemis uses someone else / slips; political damage.
HLS Option A - SpaceXforensicMay 30 202095% · rel 20
Cargo Dragon / Crew Dragon: closed trench · 95% est · rel 20
ISS crew transport is done. Score 95% because variants and successor vehicles still sit on other cards.
Commercial Crew - TeslaforensicMar 13 202095% · rel 20
Mass-market volume cars (3 / Y): closed trench · 95% est · rel 20
Volume: yes. Price contract: no. Score 95% of the unit-volume trench, not 100% of the affordability trench — that remainder lives on the compact LFP card.
Master Plan I - SpaceXforensicMay 11 201898% · rel 25
Falcon 9 operational + first-stage reuse: closed trench · 98% est · rel 25
This trench turned a launch company into a factory. Score 98% of reusable medium-lift, not 100% of 'airliner' — that claim now sits on Starship.
F9 flight log - SpaceXforensicFeb 6 2018100% · rel 10
Falcon Heavy: closed trench · 100% est · rel 10
Slipped years before it flew. Once it flew, the objective closed. Do not confuse a late hit with a miss.
FH log - SpaceXforensicApr 8 2016100% · rel 8
Landing zone / ASDS drone-ship reuse architecture: closed trench · 100% est · rel 8
Closed. Do not recycle this as a Starship catch score.
Landing log - TeslaforensicSep 1 2015100% · rel 8
Higher-volume sedan / SUV (S then X): closed trench · 100% est · rel 8
Product intent of Plan I item 2 is closed. Fremont S/X capacity is being reused (Optimus Academy conversion ~late Aug 2026), which is the tell that this trench is finished and being mined for the next one.
Master Plan I - SpaceXforensicSep 28 2008100% · rel 5
Falcon 1 orbital (prove we can reach orbit): closed trench · 100% est · rel 5
2/5 success. NASA COTS and the rest of the stack only exist because this one closed. Value if miss: SpaceX dies in 2008. Value if hit: entire stack above.
Launch log 2008 - TeslaforensicFeb 1 2008100% · rel 5
Sports-car beachhead (Roadster 1): closed trench · 100% est · rel 5
Near-death financing, not a product triumph. Era raise roughly $40–90M plus Lotus engineering. The unit economics were never the point; survival was.
Master Plan I