Scoring model · labeled opinion

The merge-relevance trench

Completion answers “is it built?” Relevance answers “does this trench change whether Tesla and SpaceX should be one company?” Terafab is 8% built and 98 relevant. That is not a contradiction.

Relevance ≠ completion

A 100% done Model 3 line barely moves merger math. A 8% chip moonshot with a $55B shared bill moves it a lot. Do not rank trenches by how finished they look in a keynote.

Terafab: 40 shared + 30 bill + 20 agency + 8 execution = 98. Highest in the set.

How the score is built (0–100)

Shared necessity: 0–40. Do both companies need the same physical or legal node?
Bill neither wants alone: 0–30. Capex that is easier as one P&L than as a related-party invoice.
Agency conflict: 0–20. Traffic that a merger would collapse (Elon on both sides).
Execution haircut: 0–10. Discount if it is still slides. Terafab keeps 8 of 10 because the LOI is real even if the fab is not.

Low completion + high relevance is a moonshot. High completion + low relevance is a closed trench that no longer moves the clock.

Ranked trenches

Sorted by merger relevance. Click a row to inspect. Gold = shared node.

Explore the shared chip moonshot Merge clock