Market-cap sensitivity, not a price target
Objective pricing
Every trench has three numbers plus $ per remaining point.
| Objective | % | Relevance | To date | To finish | Hit | Miss | $/pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TeslaDONE Sports-car beachhead (Roadster 1) | 100% | 5 | $40M–$90M | — | $1.50T | $0 | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Falcon 1 orbital (prove we can reach orbit) | 100% | 5 | $100M–$300M | — | $1.80T | $0 | $0 |
TeslaDONE Higher-volume sedan / SUV (S then X) | 100% | 8 | $2.0B–$5.0B | — | $80.0B | −$50.0B | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Falcon 9 operational + first-stage reuse | 98% | 25 | $1.0B–$3.0B | $0–$200M | $400.0B | $0 | $50M |
SpaceXDONE Landing zone / ASDS drone-ship reuse architecture | 100% | 8 | $300M–$800M | — | $80.0B | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Energy beachhead (Powerwall / Megapack / SolarCity) | 52% | 55 | $8.0B–$15.0B | $5.0B–$12.0B | $200.0B | −$40.0B | $177M |
TeslaDONE Mass-market volume cars (3 / Y) | 95% | 20 | $15.0B–$30.0B | $0–$2.0B | $400.0B | −$200.0B | $200M |
SpaceXDONE Falcon Heavy | 100% | 10 | $500M–$1.5B | — | $40.0B | −$15.0B | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Cargo Dragon / Crew Dragon | 95% | 20 | $2.0B–$4.0B | $0–$300M | $50.0B | −$20.0B | $30M |
SpaceXDONE NASA Commercial Crew + cargo + HLS award | 100% | 45 | $3.0B–$6.0B | — | $40.0B | −$25.0B | $0 |
TeslaCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Master Plan III world-scale items Tesla does not operate | 0% | 0 | $0–$50M | — | $0 | $0 | $0 |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Segment expansion: Cybertruck + Semi | 48% | 15 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $2.0B–$6.0B | $80.0B | −$25.0B | $77M |
MergeIN TRENCHES FSD as a paid supervised product | 70% | 70 | $15.0B–$30.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $600.0B | −$400.0B | $467M |
TeslaSLIPPED Next-gen affordable / compact LFP platform | 28% | 18 | $1.0B–$4.0B | $4.0B–$12.0B | $150.0B | −$40.0B | $111M |
TeslaCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Master Plan IV abundance / AI / robots wrapper | 0% | 40 | — | — | $0 | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla energy for Starbase / compute | 35% | 78 | $200M–$1.5B | $1.0B–$5.0B | $25.0B | −$5.0B | $46M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Cybercab scale (unboxed, ~$30k, ~$0.30/mi) | 18% | 80 | $3.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $400.0B | −$80.0B | $171M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Full-scale orbital cryogenic propellant transfer | 18% | 70 | $500M–$2.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $200.0B | −$150.0B | $61M |
SpaceXDONE SpaceX IPO (capital-markets trench) | 100% | 90 | $0–$500M | — | $85.0B | −$30.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starshield (NRO proliferated LEO) | 58% | 94 | $2.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$25.0B | $200.0B | −$80.0B | $393M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Vertical materials (4680, LFP, Li refinery, cathode) | 38% | 40 | $6.0B–$12.0B | $8.0B–$18.0B | $120.0B | −$30.0B | $210M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Dojo / Cortex / AI5–AI6 / in-house inference | 40% | 85 | $8.0B–$20.0B | $15.0B–$40.0B | $250.0B | −$80.0B | $458M |
TeslaDONE 1 million through 10 millionth vehicle | 100% | 25 | $25.0B–$45.0B | — | $250.0B | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab (shared chip moonshot) | 8% | 98 | $200M–$2.0B | $40.0B–$70.0B | $300.0B | −$80.0B | $598M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink in Cybercab / robotaxi | 22% | 86 | $50M–$400M | $500M–$3.0B | $40.0B | −$8.0B | $22M |
SpaceXDONE Starship integrated flight-test program exists | 100% | 70 | $5.0B–$10.0B | — | $100.0B | −$80.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Megapack 3 / Megafactory / grid services | 52% | 60 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $4.0B–$10.0B | $180.0B | −$20.0B | $146M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Optimus (general-purpose labor product) | 14% | 92 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $20.0B–$80.0B | $1.00T | −$120.0B | $581M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink as a real ISP | 78% | 75 | $10.0B–$20.0B | $8.0B–$25.0B | $500.0B | −$200.0B | $750M |
MergeSLIPPED Unsupervised Robotaxi / Tesla Network | 24% | 88 | $20.0B–$40.0B | $25.0B–$80.0B | $800.0B | −$350.0B | $691M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship to operational orbit + payload deploy + rapid reuse | 48% | 95 | $8.0B–$15.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $600.0B | −$250.0B | $269M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starlink V3 mass deploy via Starship | 28% | 72 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $10.0B–$30.0B | $350.0B | −$100.0B | $278M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Super Heavy + Ship cadence for a Mars window | 7% | 55 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $15.0B–$40.0B | $300.0B | −$80.0B | $296M |
MergeSLIPPED Uncrewed Mars 2026 window (and the slip track) | 8% | 80 | $500M–$2.0B | $20.0B–$80.0B | $200.0B | −$60.0B | $543M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Optimus as Mars / Moon labor | 6% | 90 | $0–$200M | $5.0B–$30.0B | $150.0B | −$20.0B | $186M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship as $10s–$100s/kg launch | 20% | 65 | — | — | $400.0B | −$150.0B | $0 |
SpaceXSLIPPED Starship HLS / Artemis path | 24% | 50 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $120.0B | −$80.0B | $184M |
SpaceXCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Multiplanetary city | 0% | 30 | — | $100.0B–$1.00T | $0 | $0 | $5.5B |