Market-cap sensitivity, not a price target
Objective pricing
Every trench has three numbers plus $ per remaining point.
| Objective | % | Relevance | To date | To finish | Hit | Miss | $/pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TeslaDONE Sports-car beachhead (Roadster 1) | 100% | 5 | $40M–$90M | — | $1.50T | $0 | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Falcon 1 orbital (prove we can reach orbit) | 100% | 5 | $100M–$300M | — | $1.80T | $0 | $0 |
TeslaDONE Higher-volume sedan / SUV (S then X) | 100% | 8 | $2.0B–$5.0B | — | $80.0B | −$50.0B | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Falcon 9 operational + first-stage reuse | 98% | 25 | $1.0B–$3.0B | $0–$200M | $400.0B | $0 | $50M |
SpaceXDONE Landing zone / ASDS drone-ship reuse architecture | 100% | 8 | $300M–$800M | — | $80.0B | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Energy beachhead (Powerwall / Megapack / SolarCity) | 52% | 55 | $8.0B–$15.0B | $5.0B–$12.0B | $200.0B | −$40.0B | $177M |
TeslaDONE Mass-market volume cars (3 / Y) | 95% | 20 | $15.0B–$30.0B | $0–$2.0B | $400.0B | −$200.0B | $200M |
SpaceXDONE Falcon Heavy | 100% | 10 | $500M–$1.5B | — | $40.0B | −$15.0B | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Cargo Dragon / Crew Dragon | 95% | 20 | $2.0B–$4.0B | $0–$300M | $50.0B | −$20.0B | $30M |
SpaceXDONE NASA Commercial Crew + cargo + HLS award | 100% | 45 | $3.0B–$6.0B | — | $40.0B | −$25.0B | $0 |
TeslaCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Master Plan III world-scale items Tesla does not operate | 0% | 0 | $0–$50M | — | $0 | $0 | $0 |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Supercharger / NACS as a network | 72% | 8 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $2.0B–$6.0B | $50.0B | −$15.0B | $143M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Segment expansion: Cybertruck (Semi unbundled) | 55% | 15 | $3.0B–$6.0B | $1.0B–$3.0B | $40.0B | −$15.0B | $44M |
MergeIN TRENCHES FSD as a paid supervised product | 70% | 70 | $15.0B–$30.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $600.0B | −$400.0B | $467M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES ISS United States Deorbit Vehicle | 25% | 10 | $100M–$400M | $500M–$1.2B | $2.0B | −$2.0B | $11M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Polaris / commercial crew beyond NASA | 45% | 12 | $200M–$1.0B | $1.0B–$6.0B | $20.0B | −$2.0B | $64M |
TeslaSLIPPED Next-gen affordable / compact LFP platform | 28% | 18 | $1.0B–$4.0B | $4.0B–$12.0B | $150.0B | −$40.0B | $111M |
TeslaCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Master Plan IV abundance / AI / robots wrapper | 0% | 40 | — | — | $0 | $0 | $0 |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Closed-loop battery recycling (Nevada) | 32% | 18 | $300M–$1.2B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $25.0B | −$6.0B | $37M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla energy for Starbase / compute | 35% | 78 | $200M–$1.5B | $1.0B–$5.0B | $25.0B | −$5.0B | $46M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES SLC-37 Starship pad (third orbital site) | 14% | 22 | $50M–$400M | $1.0B–$4.0B | $40.0B | −$10.0B | $29M |
TeslaSLIPPED Unboxed process / Giga Mexico | 15% | 25 | $500M–$2.5B | $4.0B–$12.0B | $80.0B | −$20.0B | $94M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Cybercab scale (unboxed, ~$30k, ~$0.30/mi) | 18% | 80 | $3.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $400.0B | −$80.0B | $171M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Commercial LEO destination (Starlab / Haven class) | 16% | 15 | $100M–$800M | $8.0B–$30.0B | $40.0B | −$5.0B | $226M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Tesla Semi (Class-8 freight, unbundled) | 42% | 12 | $3.0B–$5.0B | $2.0B–$6.0B | $40.0B | −$12.0B | $69M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Raptor 3 production factory | 40% | 55 | $1.0B–$4.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $150.0B | −$80.0B | $83M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Full-scale orbital cryogenic propellant transfer | 18% | 70 | $500M–$2.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $200.0B | −$150.0B | $61M |
SpaceXDONE SpaceX IPO (capital-markets trench) | 100% | 90 | $0–$500M | — | $85.0B | −$30.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla 2025/2028 pay package (process) | 40% | 74 | $50M–$200M | $20M–$100M | $50.0B | −$80.0B | $1M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starshield (NRO proliferated LEO) | 58% | 94 | $2.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$25.0B | $200.0B | −$80.0B | $393M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starlink enterprise / backhaul / cellular | 52% | 26 | $500M–$2.0B | $1.0B–$5.0B | $70.0B | −$12.0B | $63M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink optical ISL mesh | 64% | 34 | $1.0B–$4.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $60.0B | −$10.0B | $139M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink Government (civil / DoD unclassified) | 60% | 58 | $300M–$1.5B | $500M–$3.0B | $50.0B | −$10.0B | $44M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Vertical materials (4680, LFP, Li refinery, cathode) | 38% | 40 | $6.0B–$12.0B | $8.0B–$18.0B | $120.0B | −$30.0B | $210M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Dojo / Cortex / AI5–AI6 / in-house inference | 40% | 85 | $8.0B–$20.0B | $15.0B–$40.0B | $250.0B | −$80.0B | $458M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Virtual power plant / Autobidder | 45% | 50 | $400M–$1.5B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $60.0B | −$8.0B | $45M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Tesla Insurance (safety-score P&L) | 34% | 18 | $400M–$1.5B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $40.0B | −$8.0B | $38M |
TeslaSLIPPED Solar Roof / rooftop solar | 22% | 8 | $1.0B–$3.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $25.0B | −$5.0B | $64M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Giga Berlin as a volume plant | 68% | 14 | $5.0B–$8.0B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $50.0B | −$15.0B | $78M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Texas lithium refinery (unbundled) | 28% | 16 | — | — | $30.0B | −$8.0B | $0 |
TeslaIN TRENCHES 4680 cell line (unbundled) | 48% | 24 | — | — | $60.0B | −$15.0B | $0 |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starlink Aviation + Maritime | 55% | 20 | $1.0B–$4.0B | $2.0B–$8.0B | $80.0B | −$15.0B | $111M |
TeslaDONE 1 million through 10 millionth vehicle | 100% | 25 | $25.0B–$45.0B | — | $250.0B | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab site / state incentives | 12% | 70 | $0–$80M | — | $20.0B | −$10.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab process node | 6% | 82 | $0–$200M | — | $80.0B | −$40.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab advanced packaging | 9% | 84 | $0–$150M | — | $90.0B | −$30.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab talent / yield org | 5% | 80 | $0–$50M | — | $40.0B | −$20.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab CHIPS / CFIUS / export | 8% | 90 | $0–$30M | — | $25.0B | −$55.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab tools / EUV queue | 3% | 85 | — | — | $50.0B | −$20.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab (shared chip moonshot) | 8% | 98 | $200M–$2.0B | $40.0B–$70.0B | $300.0B | −$80.0B | $598M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab transfer-pricing collar | 2% | 94 | $0–$20M | — | $100.0B | −$80.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla Texas venue + independent committee | 15% | 96 | $20M–$80M | $50M–$400M | $100.0B | −$200.0B | $3M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES FSD licensed to other OEMs | 7% | 22 | $0–$200M | $1.0B–$8.0B | $80.0B | $0 | $48M |
TeslaIN TRENCHES Unsupervised FSD on highways | 18% | 28 | — | $2.0B–$10.0B | $120.0B | −$20.0B | $73M |
MergeBLOCKED FSD China / EU type approval | 16% | 71 | $200M–$1.0B | $1.0B–$6.0B | $80.0B | −$40.0B | $42M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Terafab captive offtake split | 4% | 93 | — | — | $60.0B | −$40.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Grok as the driving model | 6% | 90 | $0–$300M | $3.0B–$20.0B | $200.0B | −$15.0B | $122M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla-sold Starlink hardware | 14% | 64 | $0–$50M | $100M–$800M | $8.0B | $0 | $5M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla–SpaceX talent secondment | 30% | 83 | — | $0–$200M | $15.0B | −$10.0B | $1M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink in Cybercab / robotaxi | 22% | 86 | $50M–$400M | $500M–$3.0B | $40.0B | −$8.0B | $22M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Digital Optimus (Macrohard) | 12% | 91 | $100M–$800M | $2.0B–$12.0B | $80.0B | −$10.0B | $80M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Grok in Tesla vehicles | 38% | 89 | $50M–$400M | $500M–$3.0B | $40.0B | −$8.0B | $28M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla’s SpaceX holding (mark-to-market) | 55% | 88 | — | — | $30.0B | −$50.0B | $0 |
SpaceXDONE Starship integrated flight-test program exists | 100% | 70 | $5.0B–$10.0B | — | $100.0B | −$80.0B | $0 |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship tanker / depot vehicle | 10% | 42 | $0–$400M | $4.0B–$15.0B | $120.0B | −$80.0B | $106M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Megapack 3 / Megafactory / grid services | 52% | 60 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $4.0B–$10.0B | $180.0B | −$20.0B | $146M |
MergeSLIPPED Roadster 2 (and the A71 SpaceX package) | 8% | 55 | $200M–$1.0B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $15.0B | −$3.0B | $27M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Powerwall 3 attach / residential storage | 58% | 32 | $2.0B–$5.0B | $1.0B–$4.0B | $40.0B | −$8.0B | $60M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Optimus (general-purpose labor product) | 14% | 92 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $20.0B–$80.0B | $1.00T | −$120.0B | $581M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starlink as a real ISP | 78% | 75 | $10.0B–$20.0B | $8.0B–$25.0B | $500.0B | −$200.0B | $750M |
SpaceXSLIPPED Starship ship catch (chopsticks) | 18% | 48 | — | — | $150.0B | −$60.0B | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES NSSL Phase 3 (sole active flyer) | 72% | 78 | — | $2.0B–$8.0B | $80.0B | −$40.0B | $179M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship / Super Heavy factory rate | 36% | 50 | $2.0B–$8.0B | $4.0B–$15.0B | $200.0B | −$70.0B | $148M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship heat-shield life | 28% | 44 | $500M–$2.0B | $1.0B–$5.0B | $180.0B | −$90.0B | $42M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Starshield PNT / GPS alternative | 20% | 76 | — | — | $40.0B | $0 | $0 |
MergeIN TRENCHES Orbital compute / space data centers | 4% | 82 | $0–$500M | — | $500.0B | $0 | $0 |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship Florida pad (LC-39A / second orbital site) | 48% | 40 | $800M–$2.5B | $500M–$2.0B | $80.0B | −$25.0B | $24M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Tesla Megapacks at Colossus | 35% | 81 | $200M–$2.0B | $1.0B–$6.0B | $40.0B | −$15.0B | $54M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Colossus / Memphis ground compute | 62% | 80 | $20.0B–$45.0B | $15.0B–$40.0B | $400.0B | −$150.0B | $724M |
MergeSLIPPED Unsupervised Robotaxi / Tesla Network | 24% | 88 | $20.0B–$40.0B | $25.0B–$80.0B | $800.0B | −$350.0B | $691M |
MergeIN TRENCHES SpaceX AI cloud / hosting ARR | 50% | 72 | — | $0–$5.0B | $350.0B | −$200.0B | $50M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Direct-to-cell Starlink (T-Satellite → Starlink Mobile) | 42% | 45 | $4.0B–$20.0B | $8.0B–$40.0B | $200.0B | −$30.0B | $414M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship to operational orbit + payload deploy + rapid reuse | 40% | 95 | $8.0B–$15.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $600.0B | −$250.0B | $233M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starlink V3 mass deploy via Starship | 18% | 72 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $10.0B–$30.0B | $350.0B | −$100.0B | $244M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Super Heavy + Ship cadence for a Mars window | 7% | 55 | $2.0B–$6.0B | $15.0B–$40.0B | $300.0B | −$80.0B | $296M |
MergeSLIPPED Uncrewed Mars 2026 window (and the slip track) | 8% | 80 | $500M–$2.0B | $20.0B–$80.0B | $200.0B | −$60.0B | $543M |
MergeIN TRENCHES Optimus as Mars / Moon labor | 6% | 90 | $0–$200M | $5.0B–$30.0B | $150.0B | −$20.0B | $186M |
SpaceXIN TRENCHES Starship as $10s–$100s/kg launch | 20% | 65 | — | — | $400.0B | −$150.0B | $0 |
SpaceXSLIPPED Starship HLS / Artemis path | 24% | 50 | $4.0B–$8.0B | $8.0B–$20.0B | $120.0B | −$80.0B | $184M |
SpaceXCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Earth-to-Earth Starship | 3% | 30 | $0–$100M | $20.0B–$100.0B | $100.0B | $0 | $619M |
MergeCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Mars ECLSS / surface life support | 4% | 40 | $0–$200M | — | $100.0B | $0 | $0 |
SpaceXCONTEXT / NOT OWNED Multiplanetary city | 0% | 30 | — | $100.0B–$1.00T | $0 | $0 | $5.5B |