Disclaimer · 20 seconds
TRENCHES is a forensic operating system for Tesla and SpaceX objectives. Percentages are estimates from public artifacts — Master Plans, earnings, S-1s, FAA/FCC, NASA, trackers — not official KPIs. If something is a demo, it is labeled a demo. If a date moved, the old date is crossed out.
A merger module is game theory, not fanfic. Elon sits on both sides of the table. China is the silent killer. Combining them “might make Elon’s life a little easier.” That is the honest executive reason.
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Inputs move the clock. They do not move physics.
Set Starship success, robotaxi miles/day, China approval, and whether Terafab is a real shared fab. Merge gauges recalculate. Model output, labeled opinion.
Clock under this scenario
2028+ (delayed)
Delay case. China unsolved, or Starship has not closed orbital-reuse, or SpaceX is still bid-up enough that Tesla holders revolt.
Engineering
Valuation
Regulatory
Cash-flow