Inputs move the clock. They do not move physics.
Scenario lab
Set Starship success, robotaxi miles/day, China approval, and whether Terafab is a real shared fab. Merge gauges recalculate. Model output, labeled opinion.
Presets
Clock under this scenario
2028+ (delayed)
Delay case. China unsolved, or Starship has not closed orbital-reuse, or SpaceX is still bid-up enough that Tesla holders revolt.
Model output, labeled opinion. Not a prediction market. Not a fairness opinion.
Engineering
Valuation
Regulatory
Cash-flow
Sensitivity, this snapshot
What each input actually moves
Four independent gauges. Overall is a weighted opinion. Gossip odds stay gossip: Ives 80–90% over a few years; Polymarket ~46% announced by end-2027.
Starship success %
Engineering and cashflow. It does not move physics. A slider is not Flight 14.
Robotaxi paid miles / day
Engineering (small) and cashflow. 50k+/day is the early-flip threshold in this model. Tesla does not publish this number.
China approval
Regulatory, hard. Off = the silent killer stays on. This is Beijing + CFIUS, not a headline.
Starship operational
Engineering + cashflow. Orbit + reuse, not a suborbital test. A catch attempt is a sister trench.
Robotaxi unit economics
Engineering + cashflow + a little regulatory. Must show up in Tesla segment reporting, not a demo day.
Independent committee collar
Valuation + regulatory. The only process Tesla holders can defend in court. Has not shipped.
Terafab committed
Engineering and a little valuation. Cashflow takes a small hit (the bill). An LOI is not a committed fab.