Primary surface
Left = Tesla. Center = year + gold crossovers. Right = SpaceX. Pulse = slipped or blocked.
Tesla trenches
Shared / merge
SpaceX trenches
Aug 2006 Aug 2006 Feb 2008 · +18 mo · Relevance 5
Near-death financing, not a product triumph. Era raise roughly $40–90M plus Lotus engineering. The unit economics were never the point; survival was.
Jan 2006 Jan 2006 Sep 2008 · +24 mo · Relevance 5
2/5 success. NASA COTS and the rest of the stack only exist because this one closed. Value if miss: SpaceX dies in 2008. Value if hit: entire stack above.
Aug 2006 Aug 2006 Sep 2015 · on clock · Relevance 8
Product intent of Plan I item 2 is closed. Fremont S/X capacity is being reused (Optimus Academy conversion ~late Aug 2026), which is the tell that this trench is finished and being mined for the next one.
Jun 2010 Jun 2010 May 2018 · +12 mo · Relevance 25
This trench turned a launch company into a factory. Score 98% of reusable medium-lift, not 100% of 'airliner' — that claim now sits on Starship.
Jul 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2026 · +24 mo · Relevance 55
Score the storage business as real (~60% of a grid-company vision) and solar-roof-as-mass-product at ~40–55%. Do not average them into a vanity 80%. Q2 2026 energy revenue $3.14B on 13.5 GWh; 2025 deployed 46.7 GWh.
Jan 2015 Jan 2015 Apr 2016 · on clock · Relevance 8
Closed. Do not recycle this as a Starship catch score.
Mar 2016 Mar 2016 Mar 2020 · +12 mo · Relevance 20
Volume: yes. Price contract: no. Score 95% of the unit-volume trench, not 100% of the affordability trench — that remainder lives on the compact LFP card.
Jan 2013 Jan 2013 Feb 2018 · +48 mo · Relevance 10
Slipped years before it flew. Once it flew, the objective closed. Do not confuse a late hit with a miss.
May 2012 May 2012 May 2020 · +24 mo · Relevance 20
ISS crew transport is done. Score 95% because variants and successor vehicles still sit on other cards.
Apr 2021 · on clock · Relevance 45
Award ≠ landing. This card is 100% of 'won the contract.' Execution is a different trench. HLS miss = Artemis uses someone else / slips; political damage.
Mar 2023 · — · Relevance 0
CONTEXT / NOT TESLA-OWNED. The app will not score this as a Tesla trench. Publishing a slide is not operating a fuels business.
Sep 2012 Sep 2012 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 8
Score 65–80% of a North American network standard, not of global charging. The plug winning is not the same as Tesla owning every electron. Low merge relevance — SpaceX does not charge cars.
Nov 2019 Nov 2019 Nov 2023 · +36 mo · Relevance 15
Treat Cybertruck as an ongoing quality/demand trench, not a victory lap. Semi is scored on T17 (Nevada high-volume line Apr 2026, ceremonial open Sep 24). Do not double-count the plant.
Oct 2016 Oct 2016 Jul 2026 · +72 mo · Relevance 70
Supervised productization ~70%. Unsupervised general driving 25–40% and lives on the Robotaxi card. Do not let subscription count launder the autonomy claim. FSD Supervised ≠ autonomy — see glossary.
Jan 2025 Jan 2025 Dec 2027 · +24 mo · Relevance 18
This is the original Plan I remainder. Robotaxi/Cybercab absorbed the political oxygen. Score 20–35% (platform + planning, zero shipping $25k volume car).
Jan 2025 · — · Relevance 40
Do not double-count. Score T8–T14. This card exists so the wrapper cannot hide slip on the underlying trenches.
Jan 2022 Jan 2022 Jun 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 18
Dirt and a hydromet line are not energy independence. Score 25–40% of a closed loop. Do not double-count with T13 vertical materials. Merge relevance low.
Dec 2024 Dec 2024 Jul 2026 · +18 mo · Relevance 25
Do not score a Texas Cybercab line as a Mexican factory. 10–22% of the process trench. Mexico remaining a dirt pile is the tell that affordable volume was absorbed by robotaxi politics.
Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Jun 2027 · +6 mo · Relevance 80
Started ≠ scaled. Score 15–25%. The $30k / $0.30/mi pair is a design target. Do not put it in the shipped column.
Jan 2019 Jan 2019 Sep 2026 · +87 mo · Relevance 12
Unbundle from Cybertruck. A ceremonial opening is not nameplate. Score 35–50% of a commercial freight business, not 100% of a factory photo. Seven years late on the 2019 promise. Merge relevance is low — this is Tesla freight, not a SpaceX node.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 74
40% of a compensation process, 0% of 'the 2018 grant is back.' Operational tranches (1M bots, 1M robotaxis) sit on other cards. This card is the legal instrument. Merge relevance is the incentive to combine to print the AI/bot numbers.
Sep 2020 Sep 2020 Dec 2026 · +30 mo · Relevance 40
Score 30–50% of the factory stack, not of 'energy independence.' Run-rate claims ≠ cost leadership proven in COGS.
Dec 2024 Dec 2024 Dec 2026 · +18 mo · Relevance 85
Score ~40% of independence, not 40% of 'we have GPUs.' The real trench is the vehicle AI + robotaxi stack. Terafab is the shared moonshot that actually moves merge math.
Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 50
Believe the sites. Do not believe 'grid company' until software is a disclosed margin line. 38–55%. Crossover because Starbase/compute load is a captive offtaker for the same stack (X3).
Jan 2019 Jan 2019 Jun 2026 · +24 mo · Relevance 18
34% of a state-by-state book, 5% of 'we replaced GEICO.' Robotaxi unit economics quietly assume this trench exists. Merge relevance low — SpaceX does not insure cars.
Jan 2018 Jan 2018 Jun 2026 · +72 mo · Relevance 8
22% of a rooftop product, ~0% of Master Plan 'every roof.' Do not let Megapack GWh launder this slip. Merge relevance near zero.
Dec 2021 Dec 2021 Jun 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 14
68% of a volume plant. Do not score it 100 — permits and water are still live. Low merge relevance except as EU offtake for Terafab/AI5 later.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jun 2026 · +18 mo · Relevance 16
Unbundle from T13. 20–36% of a refinery, 0% of 'energy independence.' Parent T13 remains the stack score. This card is dirt and chemistry on the Gulf.
Jan 2022 Jan 2022 Jun 2026 · +30 mo · Relevance 24
Unbundle from T13. 40–56% of a cell line, not of 'Battery Day delivered.' Run-rate ≠ cost-down. Parent keeps the midstream dollars so rings stay honest.
— · on clock · Relevance 25
Q2 2026 ended at 9.7M all-time deliveries (480,126 in the quarter). The 10M badge is a factory-tour number, not a profit number. Value is the installed base for FSD data and energy attach.
Jan 2024 Jan 2024 Jul 2026 · +24 mo · Relevance 22
7%. NACS winning the plug is not FSD winning the stack. Do not launder Supercharger roaming into this card. Merge relevance modest — a supplier Tesla does not need SpaceX to be.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jul 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 28
18% of unsupervised highway, which is not 18% of robotaxi. Do not dump this into T8. A geofenced Cybercab in Austin is easier politics than unsupervised at night on I-10.
Dec 2024 Dec 2024 Jul 2026 · +20 mo · Relevance 71
16% and blocked. This is the quiet killer of the 10M-FSD-sub tranche. Merge relevance is high because a combined co with Starshield makes Beijing less likely to bless the stack, not more.
Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 60
Believe the GWh. Do not believe the 'grid company' slogan until software/services are a disclosed high-margin segment. 45–60%.
Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Aug 2026 · +80 mo · Relevance 55
Do not let this hide inside Roadster 1 (closed 2008). Score 5–12% of a shipping halo, 0% of a flying car. The A71 package is why merge relevance is not zero — it is a SpaceX hardware cameo on a Tesla SKU, and it has not shipped. Deposits are not revenue.
Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 32
58% of a residential storage product. Do not call it a grid company (that is T21). Do not call it Megapack (T12). Merge relevance is offtake for Starbase/Colossus electrons, already partly on X3/X8.
Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2027 · +36 mo · Relevance 92
Internal units ≠ a labor product. Score 10–18% of a general-purpose labor product. Do not give this a vanity 30 because the line exists. The 2025 pay package explicitly ties a huge tranche to 1M Optimus — that is Elon's incentive, not a shipment forecast.
Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Sep 2026 · +60 mo · Relevance 88
A geofenced paid demo-plus-pilot is not a network. Score 20–30% of the 2016 vision. Unsupervised miles that look like a business would move the merge clock; a fatality that freezes NHTSA would stop it.
— · on clock · Relevance 78
35%. Electrons are flowing. Transfer pricing is the fight.
Jun 2027 Jun 2027 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 70
12% of a siting file, 0% of a graded lot. A bio pointing at Terafab is not a rezoning. Parent X1 stays the $55B bill. This card is only the dirt.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 82
6%. 'Advanced' is marketing. A 2 nm fantasy and a CoWoS-class packaging house are different companies. Score the decision, not the slogan. Parent keeps the capex.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 84
9% of a packaging house, 0% of CoWoS. This is the honest Terafab — not a 2 nm fairy tale. Still a letter. Parent X1 holds the bill.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 80
5%. Elon cannot tweet a yield org into existence. Poaching TSMC is a multi-year file and a diplomatic incident. Do not score Tesla Autopilot talent as fab talent.
Dec 2027 Dec 2027 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 90
8% of a regulatory file, 0% of an award. CHIPS guardrails on China plus SpaceX ITAR plus Tesla Shanghai is the pretzel. This is why Terafab is a merge trench — the collar is easier as one P&L or impossible as two.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 85
3%. Tool lead times are the silent clock on every 'fab by 2028' slide. Packaging-only (TF3) needs a different train. Do not score a slogan as a High-NA reservation.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 98
This is a merger accelerant because neither company wants that bill alone. Score it as a letter of intent, not a factory. 5–12%.
— · on clock · Relevance 94
2%. Highest child relevance (94) because without a collar Terafab is Tesla cash donated to SpaceX sats, or the reverse. X7 is venue+committee. This is the number on the invoice. Default independentCommittee stays off.
— · on clock · Relevance 96
Venue 100%, process 0%. Blended 10–22% of the merge-process trench. Highest process relevance in the set (96) because without this node every other synergy slide is theater. Default independentCommittee toggle stays off.
Jun 2027 Jun 2027 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 93
4% of an offtake, 100% of the agency problem. Without this file Terafab is Tesla cash building a sat fab, or SpaceX cash building a car fab. Highest child relevance after transfer pricing.
6%. Do not confuse X6 (chat in the cabin) with this. Highest sci-fi related-party after Terafab: SpaceX would own the brain Tesla's pay package sits on. Merge relevance 90.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 64
14% of a channel idea. A photo of a dish in a showroom is not a SKU. Related-party retail is the small cousin of Terafab — same agency, smaller bill.
— · on clock · Relevance 83
30% of a practice, 0% of a policy. The S-1's Tesla mentions are the receipt. A merger legalizes the commute. Separation is a gift of option-pool training one way or the other.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 86
Related-party traffic. Price the conflict, not the press photo. 22%.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 91
8–18%. Do not confuse this with Optimus-the-bot (T10). Named on an earnings call is not a labor product. Merge relevance is high because it is a listed framework project sitting on Tesla silicon and SpaceX Grok — the same agency file as Terafab, smaller bill.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jul 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 89
30–48% of an in-cabin feature, ~0% of FSD. The conflict card already says this; the trench scores the product. After the combination, Tesla is buying AI from SpaceX whether holders voted or not. High merge relevance because staying separate cements a transfer-pricing swamp.
— · on clock · Relevance 88
55% of a disclosed stake, 0% of a fairness net-out. The conflict card says this; the trench scores the asset. Highest process relevance after X7/TF8 because the exchange ratio has to net this or it is a double count.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 81
35% of a related-party power offtake. Do not score Starbase (X3) as Memphis. Emissions lawsuits are the sister risk. High merge relevance because Tesla energy invoicing SpaceX compute is the same agency swamp as Terafab.
Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Nov 2029 · +36 mo · Relevance 90
6%. Do not score sci-fi as progress. The merge relevance is high because the story requires both companies; the engineering is not.
Jun 2029 Jun 2029 Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 10
25% of a contracted unique vehicle, 0% of a re-entry. Distinct from Crew/Cargo Dragon (D) and from HLS (M). Merge relevance near zero — this is a NASA end-of-life tug, not a Tesla node.
Jan 2024 Jan 2024 Jun 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 12
45% of a commercial-crew product line, 5% of 'space tourism is a business.' Low merge relevance. Do not dump this into Dragon-the-NASA-contractor.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Feb 2026 · on clock · Relevance 22
14% of a third pad, 0% of a flight. Do not score 39A progress as SLC-37. Cadence diversity is the product.
Jan 2030 Jan 2030 Mar 2026 · on clock · Relevance 15
16% of a destination, 0% of a station. USDV (U) is the tug. This is the next building. Do not score a partnership press release as a habitat.
Jan 2025 Jan 2025 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 55
40% of a production system, not 40% of 'Raptor 3 exists.' The risk card (Raptor yield) is the failure mode. This card is the factory. Mars cadence (L) sits on this. Do not double-count the engine photograph onto Starship ops.
Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Dec 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 70
5 t ≠ a depot. Mars and HLS both gate on this. Score it as a demo until a tanker flies to a ship and fills it.
Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 90
Capital-markets trench: 100%. Morningstar-style fair value sat ~$60–63/sh (~$780–830B). The print being above Tesla is the valuation-fairness problem on the merge clock, not a physics result.
Oct 2024 Oct 2024 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 94
Score working proliferated ISR/comms 50–65%. Do not score Golden Dome as Starshield. Merge relevance 94 because this file is the argument against combining with Tesla-in-China, not for it. Contractor ≠ operator. NRO flies the bird.
Jan 2023 Jan 2023 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 26
52% of an enterprise vertical. Do not dump into ISP or mobility. Cash that funds Starship. Modest merge relevance except as robotaxi/ops backhaul cousin of X2.
Jan 2023 Jan 2023 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 34
64% of a mesh. Do not score it as V3. DTC, aviation, and Starshield all drink from this. Modest merge relevance except as robotaxi/denied-area backhaul.
Jan 2022 Jan 2022 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 58
60% of an unclassified gov SKU. Do not launder this into Starshield. The China merge problem is milder here than on G, but it is not zero — Tesla-China still reads badly next to DoD broadband.
Jan 2022 Jan 2022 Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 20
48–65% of the mobility vertical, not of 'we replaced inflight Wi-Fi forever.' Do not dump this into the ISP ring. Low merge relevance except as cash that funds Starship.
Apr 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 70
Score 'exists and iterates' 100%. Score 'fully reusable cheap heavy lift in operational service' on card J, ~35–45%. Do not smuggle operations into existence.
Dec 2027 Dec 2027 Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 42
10% of a tanker SKU. Do not score a cryo-transfer test as a tanker factory. HLS (M) dies without this. Mars cadence (L) dies without this.
Jan 2024 Jan 2024 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 75
Score working global product 75–85%, full authorized constellation + V3 capacity 40–55%. Miss = SpaceX stays a contractor. Hit = infrastructure monopoly in LEO comms. Do not mix the two percentages on one ring.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 48
18% of ship catch, not of 'Starship reuses.' Do not score a booster catch photo as a ship catch. Cadence and $100/kg both sit on this. Cost counted on Starship ops so the ring stays honest.
Jan 2022 Jan 2022 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 78
72% of a Phase-3 factory, 0% of Starship-NSSL. Monopoly cadence is a cash machine and a FOCI magnet. High merge relevance because this file plus Tesla-China is the pretzel.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 50
36% of a vehicle factory. A stacked photograph is not a rate. Mars window (L) and $100/kg (P) both sit here. Do not double-count Raptor (W).
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 44
28% of a reusable shield. Reentry once is not life. $100/kg (P) is a slide until this is boring. Cost overlapping Starship — keep finish modest.
Jan 2027 Jan 2027 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 76
20% of a mission class, 0% of 'GPS is obsolete.' Score a named offtake, not a press leak. Merge relevance is the same FOCI file as Starshield — Tesla-China does not belong on a PNT bird.
Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 82
2–8%. Do not score Colossus as orbital. Do not score Terafab LOI as a rad-hard node. This is the merge-relevant sci-fi because it needs Starship + Tesla energy + Terafab + xAI demand — all four. Execution is near zero.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 40
40–58% of a second pad, 0% of Florida flight. Cadence independence from Cameron County is the product. A beautiful tower is not a launch. Distinct from Starship ops (J) and pad-explosion risk.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 80
55–70% of a GW-class ground cluster. Not Terafab. Not orbital. Not Grok-the-model. The conflict: Tesla Cortex vs SpaceX Colossus are two related-party piles of Nvidia. Merge relevance is high because the AI P&L now sits inside SpaceX while Tesla is still building picks-and-shovels.
Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Sep 2026 · on clock · Relevance 72
50% of a hosting business, 15% of a $100B ARR company. A December exit run-rate is not recognized revenue. 90-day outs mean the valuation-fairness problem on the merge clock just got louder — SpaceX prints as an AI co on contracts Tesla holders cannot audit. Distinct from Colossus-the-building (Z).
Jan 2024 Jan 2024 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 45
Score the emergency/text product ~40%, the carrier-replacement slogan ~5%. Physics still hates indoor 5G from LEO. Distinct from Starlink-the-ISP (F) and Starlink-in-cab (X2). Merge relevance is the dead-zone story for robotaxi — already partly on X2.
Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Sep 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 95
Score ~40%. A filed orbital attempt is not an operational vehicle. If Flight 14+ actually deploys V3 to orbit AND reuse starts to look real, the merge clock flips earlier. If the orbital-reuse loop does not close, merge slips past 2028.
Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Sep 2026 · +3 mo · Relevance 72
Suborbital ≠ constellation. Score 15–25% until V3s are working in orbit. Flight 14 is the gate. Current 10M-class users need new hardware before V3 is a consumer story.
Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Jan 2033 · +48 mo · Relevance 55
5–10%. Do not score pad concrete as cadence. A Mars window is a logistics problem SpaceX has not started.
Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Nov 2029 · +36 mo · Relevance 80
The app shows BOTH the 2026 window AND the slip track. First uncrewed more like ~3.5 years and crew ~5.5 from mid-2025 comments. A real city push 2031–33. Score 5–12% of a useful uncrewed landing. Not a city.
Jan 2025 · +18 mo · Relevance 65
20%. A slide of a cost curve is not a price. Do not put $100/kg in the shipped column.
Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2028 · +24 mo · Relevance 50
20–30% of 'land cargo then crew on Moon with Starship.' Musk has said Moon <10 years is more plausible than Mars. A lunar self-growing city is a new slogan, not a scored city.
Jan 2028 · — · Relevance 30
3%. Do not give this a vanity 10%. Distinct from Mars (N/Q), from $100/kg (P), from HLS (M). A suborbital cargo demo would move it; a keynote will not. Merge relevance is a story, not a file.
Jan 2030 · — · Relevance 40
4% and context. Do not let this vote in the rings. The crossover is real as a story (Tesla energy + Optimus + Starship) and zero as a file. Q stays 0% for the city.
Jan 2050 Jan 2050 Jan 2033 · — · Relevance 30
0%. Infrastructure studies ≠ a city. A vanity 5% would be a lie. Moon <10 years is the more plausible slogan; still not a city.