Cybercab scale (unboxed, ~$30k, ~$0.30/mi) Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Oct 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 80
Started ≠ scaled. Score 15–25%. The $30k / $0.30/mi pair is a design target. Do not put it in the shipped column.
Vertical materials (4680, LFP, Li refinery, cathode) Sep 2020 Sep 2020 Dec 2026 · +30 mo · Relevance 40
Score 30–50% of the factory stack, not of 'energy independence.' Run-rate claims ≠ cost leadership proven in COGS.
Dojo / Cortex / AI5–AI6 / in-house inference Dec 2024 Dec 2024 Dec 2026 · +18 mo · Relevance 85
Score ~40% of independence, not 40% of 'we have GPUs.' The real trench is the vehicle AI + robotaxi stack. Terafab is the shared moonshot that actually moves merge math.
1 million through 10 millionth vehicle — · on clock · Relevance 25
Q2 2026 ended at 9.7M all-time deliveries (480,126 in the quarter). The 10M badge is a factory-tour number, not a profit number. Value is the installed base for FSD data and energy attach.
Megapack 3 / Megafactory / grid services Aug 2026 · on clock · Relevance 60
Believe the GWh. Do not believe the 'grid company' slogan until software/services are a disclosed high-margin segment. 45–60%.
Optimus (general-purpose labor product) Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2027 · +36 mo · Relevance 92
Internal units ≠ a labor product. Score 10–18% of a general-purpose labor product. Do not give this a vanity 30 because the line exists. The 2025 pay package explicitly ties a huge tranche to 1M Optimus — that is Elon's incentive, not a shipment forecast.
Unsupervised Robotaxi / Tesla Network Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Oct 2026 · +60 mo · Relevance 88
A geofenced paid demo-plus-pilot is not a network. Score 20–30% of the 2016 vision. Unsupervised miles that look like a business would move the merge clock; a fatality that freezes NHTSA would stop it.
Tesla energy for Starbase / compute — · on clock · Relevance 78
35%. Electrons are flowing. Transfer pricing is the fight.
Terafab (shared chip moonshot) Jan 2028 Jan 2028 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 98
This is a merger accelerant because neither company wants that bill alone. Score it as a letter of intent, not a factory. 5–12%.
Starlink in Cybercab / robotaxi Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 86
Related-party traffic. Price the conflict, not the press photo. 22%.
Optimus as Mars / Moon labor Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Nov 2029 · +36 mo · Relevance 90
6%. Do not score sci-fi as progress. The merge relevance is high because the story requires both companies; the engineering is not.
Full-scale orbital cryogenic propellant transfer Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Dec 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 70
5 t ≠ a depot. Mars and HLS both gate on this. Score it as a demo until a tanker flies to a ship and fills it.
SpaceX IPO (capital-markets trench) Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 90
Capital-markets trench: 100%. Morningstar-style fair value sat ~$60–63/sh (~$780–830B). The print being above Tesla is the valuation-fairness problem on the merge clock, not a physics result.
Starshield (NRO proliferated LEO) Oct 2024 Oct 2024 Jun 2026 · on clock · Relevance 94
Score working proliferated ISR/comms 50–65%. Do not score Golden Dome as Starshield. Merge relevance 94 because this file is the argument against combining with Tesla-in-China, not for it. Contractor ≠ operator. NRO flies the bird.
Starship integrated flight-test program exists Apr 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2026 · on clock · Relevance 70
Score 'exists and iterates' 100%. Score 'fully reusable cheap heavy lift in operational service' on card J, ~35–45%. Do not smuggle operations into existence.
Starlink as a real ISP Jan 2024 Jan 2024 Sep 2026 · +12 mo · Relevance 75
Score working global product 75–85%, full authorized constellation + V3 capacity 40–55%. Miss = SpaceX stays a contractor. Hit = infrastructure monopoly in LEO comms. Do not mix the two percentages on one ring.
Starship to operational orbit + payload deploy + rapid reuse Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Nov 2026 · +6 mo · Relevance 95
Score ~48%. The orbital-deploy gate moved. The operational-vehicle gate did not. If Flight 15 actually catches the ship and a second deploy looks boring, the merge clock can come forward. If the catch slips again, reuse stays a slide and the clock stays late 2027.
Starlink V3 mass deploy via Starship Jun 2026 Jun 2026 Sep 2026 · +3 mo · Relevance 72
Deployed ≠ a shell. Score ~28% until those birds are working and a second flight does it again. 13.6M users are still on the Falcon-built network. V3 is not their product yet.
Super Heavy + Ship cadence for a Mars window Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Jan 2033 · +48 mo · Relevance 55
5–10%. Do not score pad concrete as cadence. A Mars window is a logistics problem SpaceX has not started.
Uncrewed Mars 2026 window (and the slip track) Nov 2026 Nov 2026 Nov 2029 · +36 mo · Relevance 80
The app shows BOTH the 2026 window AND the slip track. First uncrewed more like ~3.5 years and crew ~5.5 from mid-2025 comments. A real city push 2031–33. Score 5–12% of a useful uncrewed landing. Not a city.
Starship as $10s–$100s/kg launch Jan 2025 · +18 mo · Relevance 65
20%. A slide of a cost curve is not a price. Do not put $100/kg in the shipped column.