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FAQ — Tesla, SpaceX, the merge

The questions the internet actually asks. Answers from the forensic board, not a shrine. Off-topic questions are rejected.

1044 questions

• What is the difference between Tesla FSD and Autopilot?Tesla

  Autopilot is the driver-assist stack. FSD Supervised is a paid driver-responsibility product with real attach — 1.48M active subscriptions in Q2 2026, 55%+ take-rate on new North America deliveries. It is not autonomy. It is not 10x safer than a human. Unsupervised general driving lives on the robotaxi card, scored 25–40% depending on geofence vs anywhere. Percentages are estimates from public artifacts.

• How many Tesla FSD subscribers are there?Tesla

  Q2 2026: 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions. That is a paid supervised product. Do not let subscriber count launder the autonomy claim. The 10 million FSD-sub pay tranche is far. Supervised miles claimed ~12B. Unsupervised paid miles are still in the low millions on a geofenced robotaxi pilot.

• Is Tesla FSD actually full self-driving?Tesla

  No. The product Tesla sells is FSD Supervised. Cabin supervision is still required outside a geofence. California is still supervised. Unsupervised highway as a customer SKU has not shipped. Score supervised productization ~70% and unsupervised general driving 25–40%. Demos are demos.

• Does Tesla FSD still need a supervisor?Tesla

  Yes, outside the tiny unsupervised robotaxi geofence. The paid product is driver-responsibility. NHTSA still has recall and investigation machinery on Autopilot/FSD. A supervisor back in every paid mile is the freeze case.

• Is Tesla FSD unsupervised on highways?Tesla

  Unsupervised FSD on highways is scored ~18% of that SKU. Supervised highway is real. Unsupervised highway as a customer product is not. A geofenced Cybercab in Austin is easier politics than unsupervised at night on I-10. NHTSA comfort with no supervisor at 75 mph has not shipped.

• How many unsupervised Tesla miles are there?Tesla

  Q2 2026 cited ~2.5M paid robotaxi miles. Cumulative paid unsupervised miles still in the low millions. Supervised FSD claims ~12B miles. Do not mix the two. Unsupervised miles that look like a business would move the merge clock; a fatality that freezes NHTSA would stop it.

• Is Tesla FSD 10 times safer than a human?Tesla

  That was the promise. It has not shipped. The forensic card says this is not 10x safer than human and not unsupervised general driving. Safety case and NHTSA comfort are still open.

• Can Tesla FSD be used in China?Tesla

  FSD China / EU type approval is blocked, ~16% complete. Some China-local driver-assist exists. Not US-grade unsupervised FSD. Data localization and the Cyberspace Administration sit on the file. A combined co with Starshield makes Beijing less likely to bless the stack, not more.

• Is Tesla FSD legal in Europe?Tesla

  EU type approval is not a Tesla Network. UNECE / EU ADS has not shipped. The China/EU card is blocked at ~16%. Do not score a local driver-assist SKU as unsupervised autonomy.

• Is Tesla licensing FSD to other OEMs?Tesla

  FSD licensed to other OEMs is ~7% complete. Talk and a related-party org chart are not a SKU. No disclosed OEM volume. Score it as a slide until a contract and cars exist.

• Tesla robotaxi vs Waymo — who is actually operating?Tesla

  Waymo has thousands of vehicles and years of paid unsupervised miles in several cities. Tesla has a geofenced paid demo-plus-pilot: dozens of Cybercabs / converted Ys, Sun Belt metros, low-million cumulative paid miles. Austin ramping; Miami/Orlando/Tampa launched; Phoenix/Vegas prepping. Bay Area still supervised because of California rules. A geofenced paid demo is not a network.

• How many Tesla robotaxis are on the road?Tesla

  Dozens of Cybercabs and converted Model Ys, not Waymo-scale thousands. Cybercab production started Giga Texas Feb 2026; public paid rides cited around early Sep 2026. The 1 million commercial-robotaxi pay tranche is the incentive. The fleet is not.

• Does Tesla Cybercab have a steering wheel?Tesla

  Purpose-built Cybercab is sold as no steering wheel. That is an FMVSS-exemption file, not a lifestyle choice. Converted Model Y robotaxis still have wheels. A no-wheel fatality is the NHTSA freeze case. Do not treat a stage vehicle as a certified AV.

• When did Tesla Cybercab production start?Tesla

  Giga Texas unboxed line cited starting Feb 2026. Public paid rides cited early Sep 2026. Started ≠ scaled. Long-run ~$30k vehicle and ~$0.30/mi service are design targets. Do not put them in the shipped column. Score scale 15–25%.

• Is Tesla Cybercab really $30,000?Tesla

  That is a design target, not a verified bill of materials. Unboxed process is not proven at volume. Fleet is still tiny. Started ≠ scaled.

• Is Tesla robotaxi $0.30 per mile?Tesla

  Unit economics vs $0.30/mi are not in segment reporting. The pair with ~$30k is a design target. Geofenced Sun Belt ≠ anywhere. Score the 2016 Tesla Network vision 20–30%.

• Where does Tesla robotaxi operate?Tesla

  A handful of Sun Belt metros: Austin ramping; Miami/Orlando/Tampa launched; Phoenix/Vegas prepping. Bay Area still supervised. City-by-city AV permits. California still supervised. NHTSA incident authority sits on the whole program.

• Is Tesla Network a real business?Tesla

  A geofenced paid demo-plus-pilot is not a network. Cumulative paid miles still in the low millions. Dozens of vehicles vs Waymo thousands. Unsupervised miles that look like a business would move the merge clock. They are not in the 10-Q as unit economics.

• Can Tesla robotaxi run in California?Tesla

  Bay Area is still supervised because of California rules. Unsupervised highway as a customer SKU has not shipped. City-by-city AV permits are the regulatory trench.

• Is Tesla Cybertruck demand collapsing?Tesla

  Cybertruck has been in production since 2023 — not a zero. Quality and demand are the live trench, not a victory lap. Score the segment-expansion card ~55%. Semi was unbundled onto its own trench when the Sparks high-volume line started. Do not score the truck as closed.

• Is Tesla Semi in production?Tesla

  A real truck and a 1.7M sq ft Sparks plant next to Giga Nevada. High-volume line running since April 2026. Ceremonial open Sep 24. Einride-class orders in the hundreds, not tens of thousands. Original 2019 production promise is seven years late. Score 35–50% of a commercial freight business, not 100% of a factory photo.

• Where is the Tesla Semi factory?Tesla

  Sparks, Nevada, next to Giga Nevada. High-volume line since April 2026. Megacharger sites opening. 50k/year output has not shipped. Europe 2027 is a date. Unit economics vs diesel at scale are not in the 10-K.

• Has Tesla delivered 10 million cars?Tesla

  Q2 2026 ended at 9.7M all-time deliveries (480,126 in the quarter). The 10 millionth vehicle printed in July 2026. The factory trench is paid. Mix, margin, and ASP are a different fight. The 10M badge is a factory-tour number, not a profit number.

• How many Tesla vehicles were delivered in Q2 2026?Tesla

  480,126 in the quarter. Cumulative ~9.7M at quarter-end, 10M printed in July. Deliveries are not FSD. Deliveries are not robotaxi miles.

• Is Tesla building a $25,000 car?Tesla

  Next-gen affordable / compact LFP platform is slipped, ~28%. Talk, some capacity planning, overlap with unboxed / Cybercab knowledge. No shipping compact at the promised price. Robotaxi/Cybercab absorbed the political oxygen. Score 20–35% of platform plus planning, zero shipping $25k volume car.

• Is Giga Mexico shipping cars?Tesla

  No. Cybercab started at Giga Texas using pieces of the unboxed idea. Mexico is not a shipping factory. Unboxed Mexico scored ~15% and slipped. Mexico remaining a dirt pile is the tell that affordable volume was absorbed by robotaxi politics.

• What is Tesla unboxed manufacturing?Tesla

  A new assembly method promised with Giga Mexico for the affordable car. Pieces of it showed up on the Texas Cybercab line. Unboxed at 3/Y scale has not shipped. Do not score a Texas Cybercab line as a Mexican factory.

• How is Giga Berlin doing?Tesla

  Giga Berlin as a volume plant is in trenches, ~68% complete. A real European factory. Not the growth engine Shanghai is. Low merge relevance — this is Tesla volume, not a SpaceX node.

• What is Elon Musk's Tesla 2025 pay package?Tesla

  A compensation process tied to bots, robotaxis, vehicles, FSD. Texas venue. A voided Delaware grant in the rear-view. Score ~40% of a process, 0% of 'the 2018 grant is back.' 1 million bots and 1 million robotaxis are operational tranches on other cards. A package that is final has not shipped. Alignment with an independent committee if a merger is real is missing.

• Did Delaware void Elon's Tesla pay package?Tesla

  Yes. The 2018 grant was voided. Tesla reincorporated in Texas. That is venue, not a fairness opinion, and not the 2025/2028 package being final. Independent Tesla committee for a merger has not shipped.

• Why did Tesla move to Texas?Tesla

  Texas shareholder law helps Elon (2/3 vote; a 3% bloc to wage war is ~$45B at $1.5T). Venue is 100% of the independent-committee card. Process is 0%. Texas reincorporation is not a fairness opinion and not an independent committee.

• How much Tesla stock does Elon own?Tesla

  Contemporaneous coverage: ~13–20% Tesla economic / ~20% of votes, options-dependent. SpaceX voting control described ~84% post-IPO. He sits on both sides. That is the agency file, not a shrine.

• How does Elon split time between Tesla and SpaceX?Tesla

  Attention is a forensic proxy, not a telemetry feed from his calendar. Capital follows attention. The board scores it as a heatmap of earnings mentions, X, and capex guidance — not a timesheet. Combining the companies “might make Elon’s life a little easier.” That is the honest executive reason.

• Does Tesla still depend on Shanghai?Tesla

  Tesla’s volume factory and a large slice of deliveries sit in Shanghai. That is the silent killer of a Tesla–SpaceX merge: Giga Shanghai vs Starshield identity. CFIUS-class and Beijing-class reviews can stall for years. The merge model defaults chinaApproval to false for a reason.

• How much of Tesla production is Giga Shanghai?Tesla

  Shanghai is the volume plant. Exact mix moves quarter to quarter; the forensic point is not a percentage, it is the regulator. Tesla-in-China and a US national-security launch company do not share a parent without a pretzel.

• What is NHTSA investigating at Tesla?Tesla

  NHTSA already has recall and investigation machinery on Autopilot/FSD. A single unsupervised fatality can freeze the robotaxi trench, the 1M-commercial-robotaxi pay tranche, and the merge model that assumes unit economics in Tesla segment reporting. Cybercab without a steering wheel is the unsupervised product they actually regulate.

• Can NHTSA shut down Tesla robotaxi?Tesla

  A fatality or a broad FSD recall that puts a supervisor back in every paid mile is the trigger. NHTSA incident authority sits on the whole program. That is a high-severity open risk, not a press cycle.

• What is Tesla Master Plan 4?Tesla

  Master Plan IV is an abundance / AI / robots wrapper. Scored as a context card at 0% completion, merge relevance 40. It is a slogan layer over the live trenches (robotaxi, Optimus, Terafab, energy). Do not score a PDF as a factory.

• What is Tesla Master Plan III?Tesla

  World-scale items Tesla does not operate sit on a context card at 0%. Compact LFP from investor-day tables is the affordable-car remainder. Storage and the sustainable-energy company live on the energy beachhead. Do not average slides into a vanity 80%.

• Did Tesla finish Master Plan I?Tesla

  Sports-car beachhead (Roadster 1) is done. S then X is done. Mass-market 3/Y is ~95%. The even-more-affordable car slipped into the compact LFP / robotaxi fight. The original Plan I remainder is not a $25k volume car on a lot.