Class-8 trench · merge relevance 12
Tesla Semi — a plant, not nameplate
High-volume Nevada line since April 2026. Ceremonial Sparks open 24 September 2026. Cited 50k/year is a target. Tesla does not publish trucks per day. 2026 deliveries estimated 5–15k. Seven years late on 2019.
Completion
42%
High-volume Nevada line started Apr 2026; ceremonial factory open Sep 24 2026. Nameplate 50k/yr. 2026 deliveries estimated 5–15k. Unbundled from Cybertruck (T6).
Nameplate (unproven)
137/d
50,000 / 365 ≈ 137 calendar-day if at rate. That is arithmetic on a cited target, not a live counter.
Implied 2026 run-rate
14–41/d
5–15k deliveries in 2026 is a forensic band. That implies ~14–41 trucks/day as an average, not a telemetry feed. Do not treat it as today’s build.
No live Semi counter
Tesla does not publish Semi units per day. 5–15k 2026 deliveries is a forensic band from public-era commentary, not a 10-K line. Nameplate 50k/yr is a cited plant target, not proven output.
Building process
Nov 2017
Unveil
4%Class-8 tractor, cheaper per mile than diesel, 2019 production talk. A stage is not a plant.
Dec 2022
PepsiCo pilots
12%First customer trucks. Hundreds, not tens of thousands. A pilot is not a P&L.
Apr 29 2026
High-volume NV line
38%First Semi off the Sparks high-volume line. This is the real industrial start, not the ribbon.
Sep 24 2026
Ceremonial open
42%Sparks factory inauguration. A ribbon is not nameplate. Line already running since April.
Cited 50k/yr
Nameplate (unproven)
42%50,000 / 365 ≈ 137 calendar-day if at rate. Tesla has not published a live daily counter. Do not invent one.
Cited 2027
Europe type approval
20%A date. Not a homologation. Megacharger density vs diesel dwell is still the engineering file.
Program statistics
Plant
1.7M sq ft Sparks
Next to Giga Nevada
Program $ to date
$3–5B
Forensic midpoint, public-era
Cost to finish
$2–6B
Ramp to 50k + corridors + Europe
Merge relevance
12 / 100
Tesla freight, not a SpaceX node
Slip vs 2019
87 months
Seven years late on the original promise
Starting price
Missing
Original $150k starting price did not hold
Corridor heat
Forensic Megacharger / freight-lane attention, 0–100. Not stall occupancy. Tesla does not publish truck-charger utilization.
Promised
A Class-8 electric tractor at volume, cheaper per mile than diesel, 2019 production.
Shipped
A real truck and a 1.7M sq ft Sparks plant next to Giga Nevada. High-volume line running since April. Megacharger sites opening. Einride-class orders in the hundreds, not tens of thousands.
Missing
50k/year output. Europe 2027 is a date. Unit economics vs diesel at scale in the 10-K. The original $150k starting price.
Daily desk · live + forensic
Today’s update
Sep 15 2026
Completion
42%
range 35–50%
est. from public artifacts
Since last quarter +4 pts · last official Sep 24 2026
Completion tape
- Q4'22 12%
- Q4'24 18%
- Q2'25 24%
- Q4'25 30%
- Q2'26 38%
- Q3'26 42%
IN TRENCHES
T17
Tesla Semi (Class-8 freight, unbundled)
Merge relevance 12
Child trenches · % complete
Today’s still
Today’s video
Stills
Reconstruction — unmarked Class-8 electric tractor at dusk. A yard photo is not 50k/year. 
Reconstruction — empty cab. No driver. Cabin still ≠ unit economics vs diesel. 
Reconstruction — chassis on a conveyor. High-volume line since April 2026. Not nameplate. 
Reconstruction — Sparks sheds. Ceremonial open 24 Sep 2026 is a ribbon, not a counter. 
Reconstruction — empty Megacharger island. Density vs diesel dwell is the sister trench.
Videos
Reconstruction · Semi line recon — Reconstruction. Chassis advancing. Tesla does not publish a live daily Semi count.